After the 77th Independence Day anniversary, the junta or State Administration Council (SAC) moves seems to be diversifying, rather than just the 2025 November election outlet, bent on achieving political monopoly for the SAC by continuing to occupy the driver’s seat of the country, as is now the case.

Why diversifying or perhaps multi-prong approach of the SAC to the civil war conflict nature comes about isn’t clear the paradigm shift is definitely in the air.

First, some 6,000 prisoner were released, including 344 political prisoners according to Political Prisoners Network – Myanmar (PPNM) announcement of January 6, but not high profile personalities like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U Win Myint. PPNM blasted at SAC Spokesman General Zaw Min Tun for inflating the figures up to 600 political prisoners released. It wants to appease the opposition but seems not bold enough to release the important figures.

Second, Junta giving socially outstanding credentials to 249 individuals, in which some 40 Shans were being honored, probably because they were not going against the junta. Mon is the second largest group after Shan, followed by Yangon residents, according to the news report.

Ironically, the Shans were not against the junta but not for the junta also. In fact, the SNLD is part of the People’s Representatives Committee for Federalization (PRCF), a coalition of 12 political parties formed to oppose the military coup, has released a draft constitution for a federal democratic union on the 77th anniversary of the Union Day. The draft constitution is based on the eight-state principle, PRCF spokesperson Sai Kyaw Nyunt, Joint Secretary-General 1 of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD), told VOA, on February 12, 2024.

Third, the so-called Ngwe Saung series of meetings became known in September last years, which were tolerated by the SAC and the group involved even traveled to Jakarta to hold informal meeting of various youth generations and political parties to find a new mechanism in Burma’s conflict resolution.

Reportedly, generations 88, 96, and 98, top ethnic political forces, and the youth of Generation Z were also included in the discussion.

The discussion is to establish a federal democratic union, hold political discussions with relevant stakeholders, release political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible, stop the nationwide wars, need for international assistance, transition period and mid-term planning. Seven decisions have been made to form a mechanism.

Then on October 4th and 5th, 2024 a confidential discussion on Myanmar affairs with top international diplomats was held in Jakarta, Indonesia.

U Bobo Oo, vice president of San Chaung Township, Yangon Region, of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party, said that the decisions that came out from the Ngwe Saung discussion.

“I am aware that this information was taken for the Jakarta event. Because that meeting news also has been kept in the dark, we have a problem, (assessing them)”

Chairman of Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) U Sai Nyunt Lwin also confirmed to RFA that he carried it to the Jakarta discussion.

Representatives from United Nations, European Union (EU), ASEAN Southeast Asian Countries, Indonesia, National Unity Government (NUG) and Myanmar Opposition Forces attended the Jakarta discussion, according to RFA report of January 3.

While there were reports that the SAC intelligence units has blocked such meeting in Kalaw, all in all the SAC seems to give them the go-ahead, otherwise it wouldn’t have happened, much less making it to Jakarta to present their conflict resolution outlook.

Parallel to this, the SAC has maintained its original goal of holding election within 2025, probably in November and vowed to hand over political power to the election winning party, which General Min Aung Hlaing reiterated during his Independence Day speech.

“The groups engaged in armed struggle against the State have been urged to abandon the path of terror and resolve the political issue through peaceful means. It has also been clearly declared that no solutions will be provided to demand of armed terrorism. Therefore, it is strongly urged that, for the sake of non-disintegration of the Union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty, all armed conflicts and differing attitudes should be resolved under the law,” Min Aung Hlaing said in his speech.

Moreover, he reiterated, “I firmly pledge to ensure that the general election will be systematic, fair, and dignified, and to transfer state responsibilities to the government formed as a result of the election.”

Last but not least, he again promotes a phrase that he often used to instill common national identity. He said, “All Myanmar citizens, with the spirit of being Myanmar and the mindset of “We are Myanmar”, through the national spirit, must work together with determination to realize peace, stability, and development of the State.”

It now looks like the SAC chief isn’t as confident as he was a few weeks ago, when China said it will do everything to help with the planned election and would endorse it no matter whether the outcome will be accepted by the international community or not. The doubtfulness may lies with the victories of Arakan Army (AA) and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) on a big scale militarily. AA is on the verge of pushing the junta troops out of Rakhine State completely, while the KIA also has been doing the same, taking over border trading gates and also Bahmo the second largest city in Kachin State.

China has cut a deal with the KIA, even though it previously said all border tradings will be government-to government level and no ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) will have a say. But quite recently, China lifted its so-called sanctions, dubbed as five-cuts [electricity, gas, water, internet, supplies (consumer goods including fuel, medicine and rice), entry and exit of people are also blocked], and continue trading with KIA or Kachin State. It is understood that the rare earth elements import from Kachin State is crucial to its industry, without which China couldn’t function in rare earth export of which the majority comes from Kachin State.

In the same vein, AA will also be given a favorable dealing where Kyaukphu economic projects like twin pipelines to Special economic zone and others crucial to China, including the planned railway links from China to Rakhine State for Yunan outlet to Indian Ocean.

This means China is going to deal with EAO winners and also SAC. But how it will go about it is a bit too early to speculate.

To sum up, the SAC using multi-prong approaches to find a way out may not be too bad, better as having just one option, so to speak.