It must have been a nightmare for General Min Aung Hlaing that such horrible news of his International Criminal Court’s (ICC) request arrest warrant broke out while he is still enjoying the diplomatic feat rendered to him by Beijing just a few days earlier in form of endorsing him to be a top-dog in Myanmar political arena, letting him take the lead by backing him with whatever he may need to fulfill the task.

First, his depleted legitimacy has been shored up to a degree by China’s invitation to Kunming to attend the eighth Greater Mekong Subregion Summit, in Southwest China’s Yunnan Province, from November 6 to 7.

Later on official announcement were made that Beijing will help with his planned national election in November 2025, including pressuring the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) along its border to stop the offensives against the junta or State Administration Council (SAC) by imposing sanctions and blockage so that they won’t be able to sustain their offensives.

Moreover, China is even gearing up to form a joint-security venture with the SAC now to safeguard its economic interest within Myanmar, which clearly means all anti-junta forces from National Unity Government/ People’s Defense Force(NUG/PDF), EAOs to all local defense forces will have to fall in line with China-SAC prescribed peace plan and political agenda, whether they like it or not.

To date, two of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) members, have yielded to China’s demand to some degree. For example, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang stopped its offensive completely against the junta and agreed to China-led peace talks which still has to be activated, even though it hasn’t withdrawn back from its captured territories in northern Shan State.

In the same vein, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) quite recently issued a statement to hold peace talks with the junta in lieu of China’s good will mediation plan to end the armed conflict.

However, nothing has been reported so far in concrete terms at this writing on China’s mediation peace process. This leaves the other 3BHA member, the Arakan Army (AA) still fighting in its homestead Rakhine State and is in the process of evicting all junta’s troops altogether. Reportedly, AA has taken over 85 percent of the whole state and it is only a matter of time that total control of the state will become a reality, according to the observers and experts.

Responses to the ICC’s request warrant

The international rights groups, NGOs and anti-junta groups all came up with unreserved endorsement for the ICC’s request arrest warrant of General Min Aung Hlaing for its war crimes and genocidal intent on the Rohingya for the time span of 2016-2017.

On November 27, responding to the announcement that the International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan is seeking an arrest warrant for Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing for his responsibility for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya committed in both Myanmar and Bangladesh, Agnès Callamard, Secretary General at Amnesty International, said:

“Today’s announcement by the ICC prosecutor is a decisive step and an important signal – both for Myanmar and the rest of the world – that those who are allegedly responsible for crimes under international law will be sought to face arrest and trial, no matter how powerful they are or how long they have escaped scrutiny.”

“If the arrest warrant is granted, Min Aung Hlaing should be subject to immediate arrest and surrender to the International Criminal Court to face trial. In the meantime, more can be done to build on this momentum and pursue accountability for Rohingya and all the peoples of Myanmar. This should start with the UN Security Council referring the entire situation in the country to the International Criminal Court.”

On November 27, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the nation’s largest Muslim civil rights and advocacy organization, today welcomed the International Criminal Court (ICC) decision to seek an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s (Burma) military leader Min Aung Hlaing over alleged crimes against humanity committed against Rohingya Muslims.

Earlier this year, CAIR condemned the reported killing of hundreds of Rohingya Muslims, including women and children, by drone strikes while they were fleeing violence in Myanmar.

In a statement released on 29 November, Fortify Rights called on ICC member states to issue an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s top military commander, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, to hold them accountable for international crimes committed in Myanmar.

Part of the statement is as follows.

“Several dozen high-ranking officials in the Myanmar military and police could be held criminally liable at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for their role in the “clearance operations” against Rohingya civilians in 2016 and 2017 and for mass atrocity crimes committed after the 2021 coup in Myanmar, said Fortify Rights today. The ICC Prosecutor Karim A.A. Khan announced on November 27 that his office is seeking an arrest warrant for Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing “for the crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya, committed in Myanmar, and in part in Bangladesh.””

“After a long wait, this is a remarkable step forward for the Rohingya community and the people of Myanmar,” said Zaw Win, Human Rights Specialist at Fortify Rights. “The ICC must now issue arrest warrants for the other perpetrators equally involved in committing genocide against the Rohingya community.”

On 28 November, ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) strongly welcomes the announcement by the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor that his office has filled an application for the issuance of an arrest warrant against Min Aung Hlaing for crimes against humanity of deportation and persecution of the Rohingya committed in Myanmar and in part in Bangladesh.

Mercy Chriesty Barends, APHR Chairperson and member of Indonesia’s House of Representatives, stated, “we strongly welcome the decision by ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan to pursue the arrest of Min Aung Hlaing. After years of meticulous evidence-gathering, this action sends a powerful message that the international community remains steadfast in its commitment to holding perpetrators of grave human rights violations accountable. The timing could not be more critical.”

On November 30, a 7-point joint-statement of NUG, Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and Chin National Front (CNF) was issued regarding the ICC’s request warrant of General Min Aung Hlaing.

The second paragraph writes: “We welcome the ICC Prosecutor’s application for the arrest warrant. This development marks the first instance in Myanmar’s military history where an application has been filed to an international court for an arrest warrant against an individual as a criminal for crimes against humanity. It can be defined as underscoring the urgent need for far-reaching reforms in Myanmar’s security sector, judicial system, and political framework, particularly regarding the Myanmar military.”

The third emphasizes: “The terrorist military leader and those allied with him are bound to face unavoidable consequences. We, therefore, call on all military personnel to join our efforts to implement security sector reform grounded in federal principles.”

The fourth points out: “The “so-called” election planned by the terrorist military leader, who is on the verge of being recognized as a criminal for crimes against humanity, holds no legitimacy. Conducting such a sham election will be another reckless step into a dark chapter of history, offering no meaningful political resolution for either the military or the country.”

The fifth urges: “It is now critical for neighboring countries, ASEAN, the United Nations, and the broader international community to exercise caution to avoid creating situations that appear to support or legitimize actions causing crimes against humanity due to their various forms of engagement with the terrorist group led by the terrorist military leader.

China’s response to the ICC’s requested arrest warrant

China has opposed the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) attempt to issue an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, over allegations of crimes against humanity against the Rohingya Muslims. Speaking at a press briefing on November 28 in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning asserted that the ICC lacks authority to prosecute non-signatory nations like Myanmar unless the case is referred by the United Nations Security Council, according to MM TV report of November 30.

Responding to AFP’s query about China’s position on the ICC prosecutor’s recent application for an arrest warrant against junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, Mao noted the complexity of the Rakhine crisis, which involves historical, ethnic, and religious dimensions. She stated, “The Rakhine State issue has a very complex historical, ethnic, and religious background and requires comprehensive measures and a prudent solution. As a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, China is closely following the development of the situation in Rakhine State and is willing to work with the international community to play a constructive role in stabilizing and cooling the situation.”

Effectiveness and success rate of ICC prosecution

There has been an ongoing argument on the ineffectiveness to follow up the ICC arrest warrants and many thought that the track record hasn’t been impressive.

“There have been thirty-one cases before the ICC. Twelve have resulted in acquittals or no charges, while six have resulted in reparations or imprisonment,” according to Council on Foreign Relations updated on November 22, 2024.

On this issue human rights lawyer U Aung Htoo was recently questioned and interviewed by TM Media in which he answered that of the 32 cases handled by the ICC from its inception, two-third of the cases have been cleared. Thus the success rate can be taken as impressive.

It is true, high profile cases like Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin of Russia may still be on the loose, due to various circumstances, but Min Aung Hlaing case is a different category, he said. The said two have legitimacy to rule while Min Aung Hlaing has none and came to power through the military coup of a legitimately elected government, which makes a big difference and there is an ongoing civil war in the country.

Thus if the ICC judges approved the arrest warrant, the political clout of Min Aung Hlaing gained from China’s recent backing will go down the drain, probably leading to the implosion of the military from within. It has just been able to breath a bit easier lately after a long skulk, due to the Chinese endorsement of its regime, which will now be no more. ASEAN will now think quite differently and so would China may need to reassess its position to be in league with such a person, even though it may at the moment still cling to backing the SAC according to its plan.

At the same time, the NUG and the EAOs may now could argue the virtue of having to make a deal with the junta’s boss, which is now on the verge of being considered one of the world most wanted criminals by the ICC. On top of that China will also be asked as a responsible UNSC permanent member to be more considerate in its decision-making which isn’t in line with international norms.

Moreover, SAC being the main culprit of breaching Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signed in 2015, which was witnessed by observers and delegates from the United Nations, the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United States, by staging military coup in February 2021, China would have to rethink its Myanmar’s policy and so do the international community, U Aung Htoo said.

Perspectives

With the ICC’s arrest warrant request, the political landscape wouldn’t be the same again. China will have to reassess its position of betting exclusively on the junta. India and Bangladesh may need to consider communicating with the anti-junta forces along their borders which in affect also rule the areas. Thailand may also have to readjust its dealing with the junta in the light of junta’s nefarious international posture, including the threat of China’s proxy United Wa State Army (UWSA) encroaching at its border in Maehongson Province, which it is demanding eviction. The anti-junta ethnic-democratic alliance forces will have to find a way out on how to free itself from China dependency way of thinking to further their revolutionary aspirations without military dictatorship system.

For now, it is unforeseeable whether China will stick to its original agenda stubbornly by putting Min Aung Hlaing at the driver’s seat at all cost and bet on him even against all odds, or turn a new leaf to work with the ethnic-democratic alliance opposition to realize it’s national interest that will lead to win-win outcome for all.

Simultaneously, it is also unpredictable if India, the largest democracy neighboring country, will change its mind and do something more than what it has been undertaking such as humanitarian aids to the population under the EAOs’ controlled territories along the border to help in their struggle. If such an undertaking is going to be in the pipeline, China’s sanctions and blockage against the EAOs may not be effective and the continuation of the people’s struggle will be secured.

One sure thing is that the people’s struggle will go on, as giving in to the junta’s tyrannical oppressive rule would mean to be military slaves forever.

In sum, where stakeholders have different national interest the ethnic-democratic alliance may need to navigate the political waters by weighing the pros and cons to benefit the people.