Significance, contemporary political scenarios unfolding before us will undoubtedly influence the political landscape and the country’s fate in the near future.
In this sense, the major episodes we are confronted with fall under the following scenarios. They are: the first anniversary Arakan Army (AA) offensive against the State Administration Council (SAC), also known as military council or military junta; the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) response to the Chinese sanctions along China-Myanmar border trading gates; the Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA) and allies’ offensive in Pale City; National Unity Government (NUG) opens for cooperation with other Bamar revolutionary groups; and the SAC increased and emboldened airstrikes and bombardment on anti-junta, ethnic-democratic forces captured territories indiscriminately, on the heels of the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gearing to enter Anyar or Sagaing, Mandalay, Magwe divisions and the aftermath of General Min Aung Hlaing’s return from China.
AA’s victories in Rakhine State
On November 13, the 1st anniversary of AA offensive against the military council covering Rakhine State and Chin State’s Paletwa area issued a press release.
The press release thanked and acknowledged the sacrifices of all those who had fallen and those who have lost limbs and body parts, including the healthcare providers’ rank and file for their unwavering support to the cause.
It also vowed to end the presence of the military council in Rakhine State and said that it is in the process of carrying out the commitment.
At the present it is conducting the offensive in coordination with allied forces against the common enemy military council through guerrilla warfare and as well ongoing offensives to capture more towns countrywide.
During the one year operation, it has successfully captured 11 townships, which are Paletwa region, Kyauktaw, Minbya, Mrauk-Oo, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Ponnagyun, Yanbye, Myebon, Pauktaw, Thandwe and Kyeintali towns and gain control within less than one year of operation.
These occupied townships are captured within this year of 2024 on January 14, Paletwa; on the 19 January, Pauktaw; on February 13, Kyauktaw; on February 15, Myebon; on February 8, Mrauk-Oo City; on February 26, Minpya; on March 4, Ponnagyun; on March 11, Yanbye; on March 17, Rathedaung; on May 18, Buthidaung and on September 5, Thandwe Township.
In Ann City of military council’s Western Military Command, six military positions were captured, while ten more still need to be taken over.
Four cities that are still under attack by the AA are Ann,Toungup, Gwa, Maungdaw and fierce fighting are still ongoing.
Reportedly, ninety percent of the offensive targets are under the control of the AA, according to the recent statement of AA Spokesman Khaing Thuka to the Narinjara News on November 16.
KIA response to China’s sanctions
The KIA in mid-October seized control of the country’s rare earth mining region that includes production sites in Pangwah, Chipwi, Phimaw, and Hsawlaw. The takeover halted mining operation after which China responded with the border closure to show its displeasure of the KIA actions, that amounted to trade embargo on Kachin State to punish the KIA and its population.
In response, the KIA responded in kind on November 14 saying selective opening of border gates to export rare earth won’t be allowed and if the gates were to open all of them should be opened. No new development hasn’t been reported at this writing.
BNRA offensive in Pale Township
According to People’s Spring report of November 17, the BNRA together with its allies Generation Z Army (GZA), Southern Yesagyo (SYSO), and Chin Brotherhood Operation were able to overrun Pale City junta’s bastion of township administration office and town’s police station within 24 hours despite repeated aerial bombardment.
They however have to retreat on November 14 due to heavy airstrike and reinforcement of the junta’s troops by helicopters.
Reportedly, 25 POW were captured and a huge amount of weapons were also seized. 9 BNRA troopers were killed in actions and 10 BNRA including one GZA soldier were wounded. However, no mention of the junta’s causalty was made in the report.
This is the first coordinated offensive by the Anyar Bamar revolutionary forces, which was hailed as a success in trying to form a united front.
NUG open for cooperation
On November 12, Nay Phone Latt, the spokesperson for NUG Prime Minister Officer, said during the press briefing “message to the people and the international community” that the door to cooperation is always open to the groups who have not agreed to cooperate under the Chain of Command (COC) of the Ministry of Defense (MOD), National Unity Government.
He said there are battalions under the MOD Chain of Command in cooperation with the ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) and there are those who haven’t been yet committed. He stressed that “the doors are always open to the those who have not yet established cooperation agreement under the COC and as well in order to achieve the same revolution goals.”
He explained that the NUG is cooperating practically with the EROs and also working together in various forms with the revolutionary forces that are born of the Spring Revolution.
He added that the military offensives have begun and it is important that systematic cooperation is needed in order to be effective in the plains of Anyar or Dry Zone.
SAC increased airstrikes and bombardment
Following General Min Aung Hlaing return from China on November 10, the next day on November 11 Mogok was bombed from the air, killing 9 civilians and injuring 13 others. On November 12, a bomb attack on a tea shop in the center of Nwanghkio City killed 11 people and injured 11 more. On November 13, Nwanghkio was bombed again, injuring four civilians. On the morning of November 13, a military air force bombed Jaing Kauk village in Gwa Township, Rakhine State, killing seven people, including two children, and wounding five others. In addition, Toungok Township, on the morning of November 14, Yankho village was attacked by air and fired with heavy weapons, killing 4 civilians. After the return of junta’s leader from China his troops have already killed at least 40 civilians aggressively and injured more than 50 within 5 days, according to People’s Spring recent report.
Jets bombed a religious temple where refugees were sheltering in Momauk Township in Kachin State on November 14 on the eve of the Tazaungmon full moon holiday, killing 9 civilians, 7 of whom were children, and injuring 30 more. Eleven civilians were killed by junta shelling in Gwa and Toungok Townships of Arakan State. As a reminder, bombing temples, schools, and hospitals is an international war crime.
The research group Data for Myanmar has now tallied over 100,000 homes deliberately destroyed by the junta’s village terror campaign since the 2021 illegal coup attempt. About three quarters of the destruction is in Sagaing Region, with most of the rest in Magway Region, affecting the majority Bamar ethnic population. The destruction is still ongoing and widespread; as an example, junta troops burned down over 100 homes in 3 villages in Sagaing Region’s Kantbalu Township this past week. The village destruction is a large factor in the displacement of 3 million Myanmar citizens living as refugees since the 2021 coup attempt, according to Burma coup resistance notes of November 16, 2024.
Analysis
Looking at the unfolding scenarios the political atmospheres is polarized than ever.
The SAC is committed to holding election and bombardment of civilians and civilian targets to disrupt the anti-junta forces’ administration establishment, using dual strategic approach, while the majority of the ethnic-democratic alliance is bent on excluding SAC from political area and a demand that it accepts transitional justice. Thus, both are in for a zero-sum game of win-lose.
Both sides see that they will prevail and with no side is giving in.
The SAC has China’s backing although the latter doesn’t trust the former completely. Even now the SAC chief is planning to go to Russia again shortly after his return from China, which China dislike. Ironically, China and SAC is toying with the idea of private security force to look after China’s economic interest with private Chinese mercenaries as it did in Africa.
On top of that the Chinese sanctions on EROs by closing the border gates it may backfire and the special security measures using Chinese security private organization will invite more problems than solutions. Sooner or later, China may have to reassess its position if the anti-China rhetoric increase within Myanmar, which is now looming and the junta unable to turn the tide militarily to its advantage.
The junta may also have to assess its real position pragmatically whether to turn over a new leaf or continue using brutal force to cow and intimidate the people alone in order to achieve its desired legitimacy and supremacy, by hook or by crook, or may only garner more hatred from the population than now. The pictures of Muammar al-Gaddafi’s and Saddam Hussein’s final days looming won’t be entertaining to the junta’s boss.
The anti-junta forces may need to be more solidified and united without exception as it is the only way to uproot the military dictatorship system, as has time and again being advised from well-meaning observers and experts. To do it the Bamar revolutionary forces have to form a united military front, eventually expanding into the political sphere and linking Sagaing Region with the northern Shan, Kachin, Chin, Rakhine so that they would be able to counter the Chinese blockage and sanctions that could hinder the Spring Revolution.
The NUG spokesman Nay Phone Hlatt in his recent press briefing said just that. In other words, the NUG won’t insist on all Bamar revolutionary forces to come under NUG/People’s Defense Force command like before but open to cooperation and coordination in other forms. In fact the Bo Nagar’s BNRA and allies offensive on Pale City can be seen as such and a start in the direction.
For now, even though everybody knows that the civil war can’t go on forever, as all warring parties and the population will become war-wary sooner or later, if this happens without decisive victory for any party, all will eventually have to sit at the negotiation table, whether they like it or not. Of course, it won’t happen in the near future because the present situation is totally polarized. Argument of justified war and oppressive war aside, the country’s and the people’s fate will rest on how much the stakeholders care for altruism, humane attitude and empathy for each other.
