As Mobye being retaken and Nawnghkio about to be the next, Myanmar’s political landscape could now change drastically and dramatically

The weekly news hasn’t been so good for the anti-junta, ethnic-democratic loose alliance, as junta retook Mobye Town in southern Shan State close to Karenni border; and the junta’s troops closing in on Nawnghkio Town captured by TNLA and allies in 2021 and is now being threatened with junta’s massive offensives.

Mobye recaptured

On July 2, Burma VJ reported the following:

“The Myanmar military council or military junta have recaptured Mobye Town, located on the border of southern Shan State and Karenni (Kayah) State, was confirmed to the Burma VJ by People’s Defense Force (PDF) and Urban Revolutionary Front (URF) commanders who are fighting and protecting Mobye Town.

The military council has been conducting an offensive to retake Mobye ever since December 2024, but the Karenni military coalition has been resisting fiercely. The military council has launched an offensive with hundreds of ground troops, supported by air and artillery support.

The Karenni military coalition defending Mobye includes the Karenni National Defense Force (KNDF), the Demoso (DMO) Local PDF, Southern Shan Strategic Bureau 1, the Karenni People’s Liberation Army (KPLA) and the URF.

The KPLA took control of most of Mobye in late 2023, and the military junta launched a counteroffensive to retake the city in December 2024. Fighting around Mobye has intensified since June 14. The junta has deployed thousands of ground troops and air support to retake the city, based at the 422nd Light Infantry Battalion (LIB), two miles north of Mobye.”

According to The Irrawaddy report of July 3, the junta recently recaptured Mobye after a major offensive retook Pekon Town in November last year and has since repeatedly tried to retake the Pekon-Mobye road and Mobye Town.

The junta used airstrikes, drone and artillery support, with numerous regime troops to seize Mobye on June 30, resistance groups said. The regime’s forces included new conscripts and Pa-O National Organization (PNO) fighters.

The casualties were said to be around 40 resistance members killed in defense of Mobye last month, according to the Progressive Karenni People Force. An officer in a Mobye resistance group said the regime had greater firepower, aircraft and artillery, and large numbers of troops.

“The regime will fight to reopen the Pinlaung-Mobye road,” said a resident in Loikaw in Karenni capital which is around 150km from Mobye.

Six Karenni towns and large rural areas of the state are held by Karenni resistance alliance.

Quite recently, Karenni resistance forces fighting in Hpasawng recently seized two junta battalion headquarters. On Tuesday, a junta fighter was shot down above the town, according to The Irrawaddy report.

Parallel to this the battle for Nawnghkio Town is intensifying as the military junta now seems to be awakened from its military setbacks during the last few years of military onslaught by the anti-junta, ethnic-demcratic forces, especially in northern Shan State, Kachin, Chin, Rakhine, Karenni and Karen states, among others.

Nawnghkio threatened

The military council has launched an offensive to retake Nawnghkio Town, held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The fighting is in progress as the military columns are gradually advancing and approaching the town, according to a military source on the ground, reports said.

The army offensive has passed through Ummathi village on the Pyin Oo Lwin-Nawnghkio road and Kan Gyi village on the Taung Kham-Nawnghkio road, where TNLA forces have taken strong positions, and has reached Myet Chin Nu village, about 4 miles from Nawnghkio, according to The Irrawaddy recent report.

The TNLA recently also reported that clashes are currently taking place between the military and the TNLA joint forces, which are currently advancing along the Pyin Oo Lwin-Nawngkhio Union Road, around Ummakhah and Nawng Pha villages, as well as near Myet Chin Nu, Nawng Lin, and Lon San villages on the Taung Kham-Nawnghkio road.

During the clashes, the military, in addition to ground attacks, fired 172 artillery shells, 47 aerial bombardments, and 31 drone bombs. The TNLA said that more than a hundred aerial bombs and artillery shells were fired during the clashes near these villages on June 29.

Military-backed Telegram channels also reported that the villages of Myet Chin Nu and Nawng O, which are just over three miles from Nawnghkio, were recaptured, and the bodies of TNLA joint forces and some weapons were seized.

The military has been carrying out heavy air and artillery attacks during the fighting, as well as continuous bombing of residential areas in Nawnghkio and Kyaukme towns, resulting in civilian casualties.

Over the past week, air strikes on Kyaukme town, which is under the control of the TNLA, have killed five civilians, injured more than 20 civilians, including two children, and damaged more than 50 homes and some schools, according to the report.

During the two talks in Kunming in the first half of this year between the military council and the TNLA, which were brokered by China, the military junta and the TNLA agreed to a ceasefire in Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw and Mogok, which were never followed. The military was said to demand that TNLA troops withdrawal from the captured towns, but the TNLA insisted that it won’t return back the towns.

Analysis

It is quite clear that the counteroffensive retaking Mobye and the push for recapturing Nawngkhio are part and parcel of the military junta’s grand strategy, which is the way out from the present deadlock through it’s manipulated, stage-managed general elections. The logic behind is to wrestle back as much territories as possible from the anti-junta forces, which will broaden its electorate bases and energize its election plan at the end of the year.

In other words, the remaking political situation of Thein Sein’s era military-backed, Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) government.

In a nutshell, the military junta has prepared ground for such scenario to be materialized. As no mainstream political parties like National League for Democracy (NLD) and Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) won’t be participating in junta’s planned general elections, the stage is set that the USDP will win with a big margin. And on top of that the military has 25 percent allotted seats according to the military-drafted 2008 Constitution, both at union level and ethnic state/regional level parliaments.

Thus, it is a dead-sure thing that the Thein Sein era political situation will be revisited and replayed, with soldiers donning civilian clothes and holding public offices.

Moreover, recent news making the rounds said General Min Aung Hlaing has ordered his officers to take up leading positions within the USDP, which in effect means the military clique will be at the helm of the party and automatically occupying the driver’s seat governing the country. Back to the square one, one would say.

In contrast to the ambitious military junta’s plan, the anti-junta ethnic-democratic forces still haven’t been able to draw up a common strategic plan and make proactive political move accordingly so far to gain international recognition and legitimacy.

It will do the anti-junta stakeholders good, if they start to earnestly think and act quickly on how to counter politically as well domestically to be in par with the military junta before it is too late.