Nobody actually doubt that China is bent on betting for the longevity of the Myanmar military junta or military council, also known also as State Administration Council (SAC), ever since its military coup in February 2021. But its public posturing to prop up the junta comes out just recently and openly for all to see, as China now seems to be in a hurry to end the conflict stalemate in Myanmar, preferably to its national interest and advantage.

In reality it has been sending messages, directly or indirectly, that SAC cannot be allowed to fail as the fragmentation of the country will not serve any neighboring country good, especially China’s own which is linked to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) where Myanmar plays a crucial role in many aspects.

Initially China was keen to play a mediator role for some kind of reconciliation between the National League for Democracy (NLD), including its detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the junta, as its diplomats were asking now and then to meet NLD leader and warned that the junta not to disband NLD from political arena. But somehow as time goes by, seeing that the junta’s boss Gen Min Aung Hlaing wouldn’t budge and bent on destroying of both NLD and its leader, it changed track.

By May 2, China made its political posture known when it sent the then China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang to meet Gen Min Aung Hliang the SAC head and confirmed its backing to its regime, which ousted the elected NLD government by a military coup in February 2021.

During their talks, Qin said that “China sincerely hopes the situation in Myanmar will stabilize and that the country will develop” and it “supports Myanmar’s search for a development path that suits its national conditions and has Burmese characteristics.”

Moreover, Qin called for all parties in Myanmar’s conflict to “settle their differences and achieve reconciliation under the constitutional and legal framework.” But he did not explicitly call for an end to the violence, and he also urged the international community to “respect Myanmar’s sovereignty,” which seems to be an oblique call to recognize the rule of the junta, according to the The Diplomat report of May 3, 2023.

This political posture clearly backed the SAC regime and also its road-map of holding election under military-drafted 2008 Constitution, which the people abhorred and also determined to uproot the military dictatorship system that is believed to be a major obstacle by the people.

In the same vein, according to Xinhua, on August 14, 2024 Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China firmly opposes external interference in Myanmar and will continue the support for Myanmar’s efforts towards domestic political reconciliation under the constitutional framework.

Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, made the remarks when meeting with Than Shwe, former chairman of the Myanmar State Peace and Development Council.

Furthermore, he said China firmly opposes external interference and infiltration in Myanmar as well as any words and deeds that undermine the stability and development of the Southeast Asian country.

China will continue to support Myanmar in safeguarding its independence, sovereignty, national unity, and territorial integrity, Wang said, and reaffirmed China’s support for Myanmar’s efforts to achieve domestic political reconciliation under the constitutional framework, hold national elections and restart the democratic transition process.

Again, on August 16, 2024 on the sideline of the ninth Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Chiang Mai during an unofficial meeting with Myanmar, Laos and Thai foreign ministers he told them his three guidelines concerning Myanmar of no civil war, no deviation from ASEAN family way, and non-interference or infiltration of external powers in Myanmar, which must be adhered, according to The Irrawaddy report of October 11, 2024.

The leaked UWSA-China meeting report

During the first week of October a document concerning the United Wa State Army (UWSA)-China meeting report was deliberately leaked, in which China sort of spelled out its political position and policy line on Myanmar’s ongoing conflict.

According to the document, on August 27, 2024 a meeting between the 9-member Chinese team and 3-member UWSA team met to discuss the situation of northern Shan State political and military conflict situation, at Pu’er City, Huizhuang Hotel.

It was attended by Deng Xijun, Li Xiaoyan, Hao Zhigang, Zhang Yifan, Liang Shaojie, DaoFeng, Li Jijie, Ni Yinhshan and Huang Yu from China’s side and Zhao Guoan, Bao Aikan and Mao Zirong from Wa State. The meeting recorder was UWSA Central Committee Office Deputy Director Mao Zirong.

Deng Xijun led the discussion who is China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Special Representative for Asian Affairs. On the Wa side Vice President of UWSA Zhao Guoan and Deputy General Secretary Bao Aikan participated together in the discussion.

The report centered on how Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) should be controlled, with explanation of China’s commitment and endorsement of SAC as a government. China’s worry of Myanmar’s fragmentation and becoming failed state and what the UWSA should do to fulfill China’s directives were made known.

Deng Xijun clarified the Chinese government’s four positions on the MNDAA to the Wa leaders as:

1. MNDAA occupation of Lashio cannot be recognized in any way;
2. MNDAA in collaboration with the National Unity Government (NUG) supported by the US government and the West, together with the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) and other forces opposing the military is leading in the front line to the overthrow the military council;
3. Spreading the idea of liberating the ‘Han’ Chinese people by falsely pretending to be cooperating with the Chinese government, they are planning to attack and conquer Mandalay in secret collaboration with the PDFs; and
4. Lying with the pretext of cooperating with the Chinese government in suppressing online fraud gangs, “Operation 1027” was launched which included not only the capture of Laukkai and the entire Kokang region, but also the invasion and occupation of Lashio City.

Deng Xijun told the UWSA leaders China’s take on the junta regime saying: “The military is the founder of Myanmar (The Founder of the State) and it is the most important political force in Myanmar politics. NUG or Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s NLD cannot replace the importance of the military in Myanmar’s political arena.”

The unable to suppress worry of the top Chinese government leaders is the prospect of the Myanmar military’s total collapse of North East Command in Lashio because the MNDAA was able to capture it in just a short time, which once have been a historic institution that defeated the Communist Party of Burma (CPB). This assumption could be observed from the statement of Deng Xijun, pointed out the Myanmar Now analysis of October 4.

However, China’s special representative, Deng Xijun, strictly stated the four points that Wa leaders must follow. They are:

1. Absolutely no arms sales to the MNDAA;
2. Any vehicle traveling from Wa State to Kokang region are not permitted to carry weapons, military equipment, fuel, medicine and food;
3. Thoroughly verify the information of every person entering and exiting the Kokang region, (especially) persons with military know-how should not be allowed entry or exit;
4. It prohibits the sale of weapons to PDF, Karenni and armed groups in the south of Myanmar.

Authenticity of the report

Than Soe Naing, ex-Communist Party Burma member and now political analyst said the recent widely distributed meeting report between Deng Xijun and UWSA top leaders could be genuine, because it is in line with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi three-point guideline principle (no civil war, adhere to ASEAN family way, and non-interference of external forces) which is also the policy of China on Myanmar conflict. Now that China openly opted to back the Myanmar military junta, the NUG and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) need to copy the spirit of Vietnam revolutionaries and energized themselves to fight like them against the US and also China to defend their sovereignty and national aspirations. They only need to observe, act smartly not to jeopardize the Chinese economic interests but firm on persistence of people’s aspirations to uproot the military dictatorship system and establishment of federal democratic union.

He told Thet Htwe Naing Public Media a few days ago that since UWSA is very secretive that it is unlikely that the leak of report comes from it but more likely to be from China’s side, as it wants to let all the anti-junta forces know its position.

However, just like the Shweli City Security Committee issued ultimatum letter to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to immediately end the war to safeguard the Chinese people along the border and workers of Chinese projects within Myanmar, including all Chinese interest on August 29, the recent UWSA-China meeting report isn’t either confirmed or denied.

MNDAA two statements

Meanwhile following the development MNDAA feeling the heat of China’s pressure issued two statements to appease China.

Due to the Chinese pressure on September 4, MNDAA issued a statement toeing China’s line, to stop fighting immediately and negotiate with junta. It won’t also attack Mandalay and Taunggyi, including its readiness to negotiate peacefully in cooperation with China’s directive. It took down the statement the same day on social media but put it on again a week or so later.

On October 9, MNDAA issued another statement that its personnel were banned to travel the US and West; not to participate in any international forum concerning Myanmar; not to meet and talk to the US and Western media without permission, including no more interview whatsoever for this year; and not to express personal and organizational (political) positions and opinions without permission.

Clearly these are to appease China so that it could avoid China’s wrath and the demand to withdraw from its seized territories of Lashio and Hsenwi areas. But it is not clear that if statement would be good enough to satisfy China’s ultimatum and demands.

Perspectives

With such unfolding scenarios, questions arise on how the MNDAA is going to function under such a pressure and distress; how the Spring Revolution, Operation 1027 and Shan-Man Operation which are linked together will pan out; and how the decision of China to prop up the SAC will look like practically on the ground.

MNDAA for now is biting the bullet as one can see by its two statements issued which were pressured by China. Its original call for uprooting the military junta and establishment of federal democratic union are now in jeopardy. It is all the more painful as it has invested a lot by training, arming the PDFs and even creating ethnic nationalities’ Brigade 611 of some 1,200 which also included ethnic Bamar and deployed in northern Shan State war theater.

According to political analyst Than Soe Naing told Thet Htwe Naing Media on October 13, that MNDAA may become ineffective and eventually have to withdraw from Lashio, at least as far as Kunlong, if not all the way into Kokang Self-Administered Zone (SAZ). Then the SAC troops now waiting in the wings in Mongyai and Tangyan may move in, as the UWSA stationed in Lashio will also be pressured to move out by China. This may eventually slow down and affect the Shan-Man Operation led by the TNLA, Bamar People Liberation Army, Danu PDF and Mandalay PDF which has been planned to flow down to Mandalay and Sagaing regions, it was speculated.

Similarly TM Media of Thein Myat on the same day said MNDAA is sandwiched between China and SAC and like being placed between a rock and a hard place. While the former is implying five-cuts [electricity, gas, water, internet, supplies (consumer goods including fuel, medicine and rice), entry and exit of people are blocked] on Kokang SAZ, the latter is bombing its captured Lashio City repeatedly, even though MNDAA has agreed to negotiate with the SAC as demanded. For now it hasn’t joined the SAC and go against the anti-junta forces and as such must still consider it as an ally. It will now have to look for allies if it were to continue with the struggle, while opting for a lesser, damage, bad choice from a row of extreme bad choices available.

On October 12, TM Media host said that China has made a fatal wrong decision by siding with the SAC. China is convinced that external forces were involved for the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, even though it didn’t mentioned them by names. The reality is that it wasn’t the NLD or any external players that triggered the resistance but the people themselves, together with the youth, who couldn’t tolerate any more the barbaric and inhumane crackdown of the junta, including the shooting of peaceful demonstrators at the heads assassination style. These prompted the mass to take up arms starting with just sling shots and Tumi gunpowder muskets. In short, the people know pretty well of what they are doing and are convinced a federal democratic union isn’t achievable or realizable with the junta still in political arena, much less as a supreme political decision-maker.

Thus if China doesn’t want anti-Chinese feeling to grow and foster in Myanmar it shouldn’t team up with the hated junta but should cooperate with the people and reap love and courtesy. It is as simple as that. China doesn’t need to look anywhere for the anti-Chinese culprit but to look at itself, as it is the self-inflicted action of betting on the junta wrong horse that caused this hatred and no one else is to blame.

In sum, we will never know if MNDAA will fight for its original political conviction together with the lowland Bamar brethren till the bitter end or capitulate and draw back to its traditional stomping ground. Equally whether the TNLA will go on with the Shan-Man Operation together with its allies is also unclear. The AA will definitely try to flush out all the SAC troops as it is on the verge of total victory in Arakan State and China has no influence on it like the China border-based EAOs.

But whether the revolution as a whole will gain momentum and become stronger, stagnate, or weaken in the course of time is too early to predict given the constant, sudden change of political wind and military landscape.