This week the top headline news is the UWSA opting out of being the sponsor of anti-junta Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) and other assorted Bamar revolutionary groups from heartland Burma, including the National Unity Government/People’s Defense Force (NUG/PDF).

According to Wa News Land (WNL) report of August 21, UWSA on August 20 formally announced that it will no longer provide military and economic assistance support to its allies, due to the heightened pressure from China.

Reportedly, at a high-level meeting in Pang Kham, also better known as Panghsang, on August 20, Wa officials informed representatives of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) of the decision.

“From this day forward, Wa State will not, under any circumstances, at any time or place, provide weapons, military passage or economic aid to other organizations,” said Zhao Guoan, Wa State Vice Chairman and Minister of Foreign Relations.

UWSA styled its official Wa Self-Administered Division as Wa State authority, although it is not officially given or recognized by any central government authority in the past and also presently.

Zhao emphasized that the decision was taken reluctantly under intense pressure from Beijing. Chinese authorities, he said, had frozen billions of dollars in assets belonging to Wa State institutions, companies, and individuals, imposed sweeping border restrictions, and threatened harsher action unless Wa ceased support to armed groups engaged in ongoing conflict.

“China will not allow any further fighting in northern Myanmar,” Zhao said. “The measures already taken are beyond what Wa State can bear. If China escalates further, the outcome is not hard to imagine, ” according to WNL report.

Accordingly Beijing holds Wa responsibility for fueling clashes in northern Shan State by supplying arms and logistical support to allied groups. China viewed Operation 1027 as breaching its policy of “no war, no unrest” in northern Shan State and also cooperation with the opposition NUG, which Beijing dislike and viewed as Western friendly, was a turning point, Zhoa elaborated.

Moreover, Wa leaders emphasized their stance of peace has never changed and the decision reflects an urgent need to preserve Wa’s survival from external pressure, but not a shift in principles, whatever it is meant by that.

In addition, Wa argued that the allies are now strong enough to sustain themselves independently.

“Each of your organizations already commands strong forces, expanded territory, and solid economic foundations,” Zhao said. “It is time to rely on your own strength, just as Wa State has always relied on itself.”

Senior representatives of the MNDAA, TNLA, and SSPP each responded by expressing “understanding and acceptance” of Wa’s position. The meeting concluded in what officials described as a “solemn, equal and friendly” atmosphere, followed by a joint dinner, according to the WNL report.

Analysis

It is hard to foresee how this Wa opting out of being financial and armament enabler will effect the anti-junta EROs and various other armed opposition groups.

However, it can be seen that the other Federal Political Negotiation Consultative Committee (FPNCC) members such as National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla, Arakan Army (AA) and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) were not present at the meeting in Panghsang, which looks like they are not concerned. But the reality is China has the same priority-setting, that clearly is putting the military junta at the driver’s seat and the other stakeholders make adjustment to the military supremacy rule, like in the past.

As such, KIA and AA will sooner or later be called upon to coercive peace talks mediated by China, where its economic interest are secured and protected. The two will have to consider whether to imply or reject to China’s demand, or find a way to escape between the horns.

Parallel to endorsing the junta’s planned elections, which China would no doubt recommend the outcome result, no matter how fraud and invalid it may turn out, so that the junta looks a bit more legitimate than its military rule now, enabling it to go on with its business as usual in materializing its China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. It definitely is going to empower the junta militarily and economically in every way it possibly can.

In other words if China could has its way, in 2026 a new Myanmar government setup with military pulling the string will emerge, peace negotiation process will be forced upon the EROs until the Thein Sein’s era political landscape is again reinstalled, or at least, in the same categorical structure.

However, projection and speculation can be made by China and the junta, but how reality on the ground will pan out is totally another question. For example, the public mood, especially where anti-China tendency is concerned can’t be written off as unimportant and would not burst out in the open.

Besides, how the KIA and AA will react to the situation is still unknown. For sure, while China’s directive may have undeniable influence on MNDAA, UWSA, NDAA and TNLA, which have contagious borders with China and reliance on cross-border trades and sustenance of their respective territories, the AA and KIA may think and act differently. Only we don’t know how.

KIA shared long border line with China but also with India. Besides, it has Rare Earth Elements (REE) within its control areas, which China can’t afford to lose to extract. Thus, KIA is in a position to bargain with China, so to speak.

Another scenario that is interesting for the Shan people is that the SSPP and UWSA mutual benefit “buffer zone” unspoken agreement between the UWSA and SSPP that has been ongoing since Communist Party of Burma (CPB) days and has always been a solid alliance all through out the decades. Now that the UWSA has abandoned the SSPP, even though it is not in conflict with the junta toeing the UWSA line, it is now left in a limbo.

The UWSA has always been against the unity of SSPP and RCSS, the two Shan armies of north and south, and even been instrumental in driving a wedge between the Shan armies. The eviction of RCSS from northern Shan State a few years ago with the help of UWSA and in collaboration between TNLA and SSPP was the case in point.

The question now arise, if the two Shan armies unity deliberation may perhaps be easier without UWSA breathing down the SSPP’s neck, according to the wish of the Shan people. We will have to wait and see.

How the near future will unfold is hard to predict. But it maybe a blessing in disguise, as the military junta is biting more than it can chew. It has to go through its planned elections; take as much territories back as possible from the anti-junta groups by trying to wage war all over the country; openly intimidating and oppressing the population by airstrikes and bombardment to cow them to submission that brings more hatred; and so on are going to backfire on the junta sooner than later.

In short, the whole population and anti-junta ethnic-democratic forces will also have no choice but to struggle on to be free from the yoke of tyrannical military regime’s clutch.