Within less than two weeks quite a lot have happened in Myanmar’s political arena.
First, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) was reprimanded to stop the war against the military junta or State Administration Council (SAC) or faced punishment by the so-called Shweli City Security Committee’s statement on 29 August, even though China’s didn’t confirmed or denied that the statement is being endorsed in an official sense. Although its Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lin Jian skirted the question of AFP in his regular press conference on August 30, he unmistakably endorsed the fact that the war has to end by all means to start reconciliation process.
Second, the National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), advisory body of the National Unity Government (NUG), issued statement lashing out at China’s interference of Myanmar’s sovereignty and one of its ethnic groups rights to self-determination on 31 August.
Third, the SAC declared the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), comprised of Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), as terrorist and illegal organizations on 2 September, effectively rejecting China’s initiative for peace negotiation between the SAC and the 3BHA.
Fourth, the MNDAA issued statement that it will maintain its self-administration zone and won’t pursue the goal of independent state; denied working with the NUG and ruled out to attack Mandalay and Taunggyi; and vowed commitment to resolve the conflict issues through political means, following China’s peace initiative, on 4 September. MNDAA took out the statement from the Facebook the same day but confirmed to the inquiry that it posted the statement.
In conjunction to all these, following the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Myanmar’s military regime leader, General Min Aung Hlaing, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAO) were urged by China to stop the offensives against the military regime. The case in point is that Deng Xijun, China’s Special Envoy for Asian Affairs met General Gam Shawng, the Kachin Independence Army’s (KIA) Vice Chairman, including leaders from the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla group. In short all seven Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) members were urged to stop fighting the SAC.
FPNCC members are AA, MNDAA, TNLA, KIA, NDAA, United Wa State Army (UWSA) and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).
In addition, TNLA and MNDAA controlled towns like Lashio, Nawng Khio, Namkham, and Manton in norther Shan State were bombed from the air repeatedly in the aftermath of SAC’s declaration of the 3BHA as terrorist outfits.
It should also be noted that SAC has been using airstrikes in Sagaing, Magwe, Chin State and Karenni State on a daily basis killing some forty civilians, within recent two weeks.
The junta at the beginning of September declared “Yan Naing Min Operation” counter-offensive followed by airstrikes and bombardment, across the country’s territories captured by the anti-junta forces. Although it was said to be planned to conduct offensives in tandem with infantry and navy, so far the SAC has relied only on airstrikes.
Outlook
Given such development and scenarios, the escalation or de-escalation of war may depend on the warring parties reaction to the given situation.
With the MNDAA out of scene in Myanmar’s Anya or Dry Zone war theater, the NUG/People’s Defense Force (PDF) resistance groups push on Mandalay could be affected has been the concern. But some observers considered it not to be serious, so long as the TNLA’s cooperation is in place, including the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA), People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Danu People’s Defense Force (DPLA), together with the Mandalay PDF are in place. Many even thought that the PDF shouldn’t shy away to take the lead in its home turf’s penetration and offensive operation. In short, how the situation of “Shan-Man Operation”, as dubbed by the NUG, will unfold is something that we will have to wait and see.
At the end of the day, it looks like that the military junta has completely rejected the China’s proposed and prescribed peace proposal with the declaration of 3BHA as illegal, terrorist organizations, with which China is pushing the junta to thrash out their differences and end the war. In other words, the junta has opted for win-lose or zero-sum game, together with its scheme to conduct election in 2025 as a way out, which China also has already endorsed. This means China has been forced to be wholly on junta’s side and now must pressure the 3BHA to comply with junta’s road map.
This is going to be a tall order, both for the 3BHA and also China, as the latter has positioned itself as an overseer and as well mediator-enforcer between the junta and 3BHA, and not party to the junta pressuring the 3BHA to comply without question.
How all the concerned parties will react to the unfolding scenario in the near future regarding to this issue is something that should be followed closely.
 was reprimanded to stop the war against the military junta or State Administration Council (SAC) or faced punishment by the so-called Shweli City Security Committee's statement on 29 August, even though China's didn't confirmed or denied that the statement is being endorsed in an official sense.){kind=link}