The rapid advances of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), particularly the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) towards Lashio severely threaten the military rule of Myanmar over the region.

Last week, the Myanmar military sought an urgent alliance amid a four-day (July 14-18) ceasefire declared by the 3BHA. Major General Min Htu, deputy of the Chief of Military Security Affairs and the commander of Shan State’s Triangle Region, met with the leaders of the United Wa State Army (UWSA) to request their assistance in preventing the 3BHA’s advance on Lashio Township, the headquarters of the North Eastern Regional Command of the Myanmar military.

The meeting between the Myanmar military and the UWSA in Pangsang shows escalated conflicts in the country. This is because the 3BHA’s strategic objectives are not limited to Lashio; they also include the capture of critical Townships such as Singu, Madaya, and Patheingyi, with the ultimate goal of capturing Mandalay City.

The intervention of the UWSA in the Lashio situation remains unclear. The UWSA would take a move if it benefits its interest. For example, its recent deployment of soldiers to Tangyan Township is because it has the potential to seize and control territory.

Nevertheless, the intervention of the UWSA in Lashio would be a more complicated effort due to the fact that in addition to the 3BHA members, there are many other parties involved in the conflict.

In addition, its intervention in the Lashio case raises concerns about the unity within the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). For example, the recent deployment of UWSA and Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP) troops to Tangyan has already created tensions among the bloc’s members.

But the UWSA would be willing to take a risk in order to intervene, similar to the way it governs Matman Township if it could control and rule.

In the end, the UWSA’s decision will be based on a rigorous consideration of both risks and benefits. While intervening in Lashio might boost its influence in the area, it might also heighten tensions with the 3BHA and destroy trust within the FPNCC.