Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) General Secretary Tah Phone Kyaw said only if the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) or ethnic resistance organizations (EAOs) fight in unison, will the revolutionary groups be able to take down the military dictatorship leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.

According to People’s Spring report of November 4, TNLA leader says unity and armed struggle will be needed to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing.

It is difficult to predict when the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing will fall, but General Secretary of the TNLA General Tah Phone Kyaw said that both unity and armed struggle will be needed to overthrow the military dictatorship.

The October issue of the TNLA Information Department published on November 3rd featured a speech by General Tah Phone Kyaw. In his speech at the Ta’ang Law Academy graduation ceremony his stance was broadcast in Burmese.

The date of the graduation ceremony was not specified. Although the TNLA and the military council reached a ceasefire in late October with the intervention of the Chinese government, TNLA leader General Tah Phone Kyaw said that the fall of Min Aung Hlaing and the military dictatorship will only be possible through armed struggle.

“It is difficult for us to predict when the military dictatorship of Min Aung Hlaing will fall. After all, we were so united during the Spring Revolution, so it is a little difficult now (due to the disunity mainly because of TNLA failed policy implementation against its allies, which he, of course, didn’t mentioned) to predict how all the ethnic armed groups will unite and fight against Min Aung Hlaing. We cannot predict if all EROs will fight Min Aung Hlaing together in unity. And we can’t (also) guarantee and predict if it will happen in 2025,” said General Tah Phone Kyaw.

General Tar Phone Kyaw also explained that the cities were (indeed) captured in Operation 1027. In the past, there were talks that attacking the military would be (impossible) like hitting the wall of the dictatorship with the head, so only the attacker would get his head injured, but the military council situation was it can really be (hurt) attacked when necessary, in his speech.

“Don’t think that we can scare Min Aung Hlaing out by just protesting to rebuild Myanmar and bring him down. We also (has held) held meetings, discussions, peace talks, and conferences (without any success). Now everything is clear. We could only take up arms and destroy this guy,” said General Tah Phone Kyaw.

He also said that he could not say how long it would take to overthrow the military dictatorship, but he must try to make it possible.

“If you ask us if it is impossible, we will try to make it possible. We will put in the effort. We cannot make it alone as a single organization,” said General Tah Phone Kyaw.

The TNLA informed that it has been working with ethnic armed groups and has been working with the People’s Defense Force (PDFs) that emerged from the Spring Revolution. It also said that it is working with the National Unity Government (NUG), and that the Ta’ang forces are preparing to unite when the time comes for the whole country to fight against Min Aung Hlaing and form a federal state.

The TNLA and the military council met in Kunming, China on October 27 and 28, 2025, with the mediation of the Chinese government, and agreed to a ceasefire.

The ceasefire agreement included the withdrawal of troops from Mogok and Moemeik or Mongmit, which the TNLA had occupied, and the military council agreed not to carry out air strikes or ground attacks on TNLA-controlled areas.

The TNLA has announced that the ceasefire with the military council was a difficult decision to make to ensure the safety of the public and minimize harm. It has also announced that it will prioritize stability and freedom of travel during the ceasefire period. Therefore, it announced that tourists and displaced people can now travel freely to their hometowns.

AA the only 3BHA left pursuing the people’s aspirations

Out of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), now United League of Arakan/ Arakan Army (ULA/AA) is the only organization to stick to to its gun. It was founded on 10 April 2009 in Laiza, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) capital with Twan Marat Niang as its leader. Its political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), was officially formed in 2016 at the AA’s first conference.

Militarily AA gained experience fighting alongside the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and later through strategic alliances, such as with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

The AA formed the Northern Alliance -Burma (NA-B) with other ethnic armed groups like the KIA and the MNDAA to increase its political leverage and military capabilities. The group later became a key member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) together with the MNDAA and the TNLA, strengthening its position against the military.

AA timeline

According to the compilation of ACLED report of October 31, 2025, titled, “From state to nation: The Arakan Army’s ascent in post-coup Myanmar”, the AA timeline can be summarized as seen below:

• 2009 – 2014: Early year
• 2015 -2020: Offensive against the military
• February 2021 – October 2023: Post-coup
• November 2023 – present: Arakan Dream.

A more detailed one is as follows:

• June 2011: AA begin fighting along side the KIA
• January 2012: Myanmar military exclude AA from ceasefire peace dialogues
• February 2015: AA fights along side with MNDAA against Myanmar military in Kokang war in northern Shan State
• 2015: AA begins its offensives in Chin and Arakan states
• November 2016: AA formed the Northern Alliance, together with the KIA, MNDAA and TNLA
• August 2017: The military designate AA a terrorist organization
• June 2019: AA formed 3BHA with MNDAA and TNLA
• March 2020: National League for Democracy designate AA a terrorist organization
• November 2020: AA enters into informal ceasefire with he military
• March 2021: The military removes its terrorist designation on AA
• August 2022: Large-scale fighting re-emerges between the AA and the military
• November 2022: The AA and the military agree on humanitarian ceasefire
• October 2023: Operation 1027 begins
• November 2023: AA begins fighting for its “Arakan Dream” and begins offensives in Rakhine state
• September 2024: The military junta designates AA as a terrorist organization
• December 2024: AA seizes Regional Military Command (RMC) in Ann
• 2025: AA seizes most of the Rakhein state and begins expanding into Ayeyawaddy, Bago and Magwe regions

“In 2025, the AA even expanded its operations into neighboring regions such as Bago, Magway, and Ayeyarwady in coordination with post-coup armed groups. This makes the AA the only EAO in Rakhine state to have ever extended geographical and political influence to such an extent,” according to the ACLED report.

Moreover, the ACLED writes: “After its series of unprecedented victories over the military in Rakhine state since 2023, the Arakan Army (AA) has cemented itself as one of the most powerful ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in Myanmar. The AA controls all but three townships in Rakhine state, has secured the entire border with Bangladesh, and controls the contiguous Paletwa township in Chin state, which borders India. It is also the only EAO in Myanmar with significant coastal territory as it controls most townships along the state’s approximately 740-kilometer coastline.”

“Using key logistical corridors — such as the Gwa-Ngathaingchaung road into the Ayeyarwady region, the Ann-Padan road into Magway, and the Toungup-Padaung road into Bago — the AA projects military and political reach beyond Rakhine state, all the while preempting junta counterattacks and disrupting supply lines.”

“The AA has reportedly provided full or partial military training, ammunition, and logistical support to at least 23 armed groups across 61 townships nationwide. Of these, 18 operate in Chin, Magway, Bago, and Ayeyarwady regions — an astounding projection of political and military influence by a comparatively new EAO,”according to the ACLED findings.

Reportedly, AA advancement into Magwe has enable it to come closer and threaten or disrupt the military’s weapon manufacturing; and expanding its revolutionary reach into Bago and Ayeyawaddy regions arming the local resistance groups and fighting along side with them, according to the report.

Furthermore, the report said: “The fall of Ann crushed the military’s ability to project power in the state and brought critical infrastructure and foreign investments under AA control — most notably the China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline station in Ann township, a vital component of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that aims to connect China’s Yunnan Province to the Indian Ocean. By December 2024, the AA had gained full control of two and partial control of eight of the 11 major Chinese-backed projects in Rakhine state.”

In a statement of October 31, 2025, ULA writes: “As a result, on October 30, 2025 alone, cowardly bombings using aircraft, naval vessels, heavy artillery, and drones struck civilians areas in Sittwe, Rathedaung, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Kyaukphyu towns, and Kon Bwe village in Zin Chaung country, killing 8 innocent civilians and wounding 22.”

The statement said that the Military Commission has employed tactics daily targeting civilian populations, villages, schools, markets, hospitals, clinics, monasteries, and large residential buildings in norther Shan State and through out Myanmar.

“There is every likelihood they will now apply them in Arakan. Therefore, starting today, we urgently and earnestly urge all parents and people living in Arakan to be far more vigilant than in previous days against airstrikes, naval bombardments, heavy artillery, and drone attacks by the defeated fascist terrorist Military Commission, and to maintain full military alertness day and night, at all times,” in its closing statement appealing to the Arakan people.

Analysis

According to media reports, the TNLA has lost about half of its territory to a sustained China-backed junta assault since mid-2025, caved in to a Chinese demand for a ceasefire with the illegal Naypyitaw regime during the 9th meeting in Kunming, China on Oct. 28.

It agreed to withdraw from Mogok and Momeik or Mongmit towns in exchange for the junta’s ceasing its daily bombing of civilian targets in TNLA controlled areas. The ceasefire could free up junta troops to attack other resistance forces such as the KIA, and AA which according to reports have already seen increased airstrikes since the junta stopped bombing the TNLA areas.

However, whether the TNLA has already withdrawn from Mogok and Mongmit, and if the Mandalay PDF has already filled up the power vacuum with its other PDF allies or the Myanmar military is being invited by the TNLA to take over is not clear at the moment. Although it seems, the junta will not be allowed to simply walk into Mogok as it did in Lashio, given the reports that the Mandalay PDF publicly invited other resistance forces to participate in the defense of Mogok, and simultaneously called for new enlistees, according to Burma Coup Resistance Notes of November 1, 2025.

TNLA General Secretary Tah Phone Kyaw recently said that all revolutionary groups must work together in order to take down the military junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. But first and foremost, it has to publicly correct its mindset, and make necessary apologies to concerned people.

This statement comes out at a time when the TNLA has signed ceasefire with the military junta and cut the deal to give away Mogok and Mongmit. As such, the situation is sort of muddy or shall we say hard to make out anything concrete by such public relation stunt.

However, Tah Phone Kyaw hasn’t touch the main cause of TNLA defeat, which has its roots in its aggressive narrow ethnonationalism and its territorial expansionism doctrine that angered the other non-Ta’ang multi-ethnic groups co-rehabilitating the northern Shan State. Moreover, its wrong political mindset implementation and unreasonable behavior and treatment of its former allies from Bamar heartland such as PDFs and Local Defense Forces (LDFs), including the former allies, almost turned enemies, the SSPP and KIA, have contributed to the TNLA fighting alone and eventually have to give up captured territories which is still ongoing, because of China’s pressure.

But it is fair to conclude that the TNLA has followed the way of MNDAA and bowed to the Chinese pressure and is out of the picture as a revolutionary force fighting the military regime, at least for now.

Now this leaves the AA still holding the banner and sticking to its gun, since the launch of Operation 1027.

AA has by far and large hasn’t deviate from its original goal of “Arakan Dream”. Although in quiet recent interviews with The Irrawaddy he has made a stance that all the ethnic nationalities liberation and freedom cannot be achieved individually but by fighting together, through his experience. He even go further that all multi-ethnic peoples, including the Bamar majority, have to chip in together in unison in order to achieve an agreeable federal union or confederation, free from military dictatorship political system.

It seems, AA is doing everything right according to big picture vision of the whole country people’s aspirations, in words and deeds militarily and politically. Although the latter has been lagging a bit behind compare to the prevailing military trend option.

Parallel to this the NUG also has been trying to close the gap, so that a formidable united front sort of common platform can be established in order to fulfill the aspirations of the people. At least, this is the message it has been conveying to the people all along.

Of course, for now it is impossible to speculate on how this will all pan out, but the ground works after more than four years of revolution has been laid by different parties, which are more or less anchored in common denomination. Only when the jigsaw puzzles will fit in together is still unknown.