From the realpolitik point of view the civil war in Burma or Myanmar would definitely go on at least for a year or two if not longer.

While the junta is losing ground politically and militarily, with a ratio of control areas of 21% to 42% to the anti-junta forces as a whole, it still has sizable troops and enough arsenal, including its airforce to go on with the destruction the towns and cities, captured by the ethnic-democratic forces.

Of the two major warring groups, ethnic-democratic forces and the Myanmar military junta or State Administration Council (SAC) are both thinking that the advantage is on their side, rightly or wrongly.

While ethnic-democratic forces can’t be seen as a solid entity, they nevertheless are fighting in tandem, each on their own territories.

For example, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Arakan Army (AA) has been fighting together the SAC in Kachin State for years and now together with the Kachin People’s Defense Force (PDF) which is part of the KIA. In turn, KIA and Kachin PDF also operate in Anyar region like Mandalay and Sagaing with the National Unity Government (NUG)/PDF and local PDF.

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) mainly operate with the Mandalay PDF in taking Mogok. But it is not clear if the TNLA will participate, if the so often talked about offensive launch on Mandalay City becomes a reality.

The AA trained the local PDF in Magwe Region and are now also fighting with them. In the same vein, AA trained Chin Brotherhood and fight with them in the Chin State taking Mindat recently.

The information may not be accurate but the ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) helping Bamar revolutionary groups in Anyar is an established fact.

If one looks at the northern Shan State war theater, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) made up of the AA, TNLA and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) all helped to train the majority Bamar revolutionary groups in their area, particularly in Kokang area. The Brigade 611 comprising a variety of groups, like the Danu People Liberation Army (DPLA), Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA), Burma National Revolutionary Army, People’s Liberation Army (PLA), armed wings of Communist Party Burma, and so on were involved.

It’s known as Ethnic Nationalities’ Brigade and over 1000 strong.

MNDAA later formed such Brigades and were instrumental in the capture of the whole northern Shan State, including the North Eastern Command of Lashio a few months ago.

The point to highlight is that the Bamar revolutionary groups played a very important role in northern Shan State theater of war. The Mandalay PDF trained by the 3BHA is still fighting the junta has become a formidable armed forces among the Bamar revolutionary groups, together with the BPLA and PLA.

Now the some Bamar revolutionary groups are all back to Anyar and spreading the resistance movement in leaps and bounds. Political analyst Sai Kyi Zin Soe told Karen Information Center (KIC) recently that they are pressured to return by the year end, by the EROs although he didn’t say from which ethnic states. But it is a positive development even though some said that the TNLA and MNDAA have to give in not to conduct further offensive and agreed to talk peace with the SAC. Somehow, the fighting between the TNLA and SAC goes on in Nwanghkio area, with on and off airstrikes of the SAC.

It isn’t clear whether the TNLA and SAC have met, although news said they were about to meet. Further news were not available at this writing.

So far, the talks between the MNDAA and SAC brokered by China was not fruitful, due to fact that the SAC wanted MNDAA to withdrawal from captured territories and the MNDAA wanted to keep it.

The same opinion was made public but TNLA secretary Tah Phone Kyaw to BBC in an interview not long ago.

China is said to talk to KIA,TNLA, MNDAA, United Wa State Army (UWSA) but not to Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla, a few weeks ago.

China and KIA reopened some border trading gates after meeting with the latter and it seems the Chinese sanctions on KIA is resolved, due to rare earth elements import from Kachin State is crucially important to China.

Eventually, China will also have to deal with AA the same it does with the KIA, which is more with respect and on equal terms, unlike dealing with the other EROs along China-Myanmar border.

Quite recently in Rakhein or Arakan State the AA overran Western Military Command in Ann City making it the second SAC’s military command to fall. All the junta’s top military officials are now either POW or dead. It is now on offensive against Sittway, the Rakhein capital and hundreds of SAC families have been evacuated using the only available sea outlet. Thus only Manaung and Kyaukpyu are left for the AA to attack.

In Chin State Chin Brotherhood captured Mindat City on December 21 and the following day SAC troops in nearby Kanpatlet negotiated for a free passage and went in to Magwe Region. Thus, southern Chin State is free of SAC troops.

In Karen State Karen National Liberation Army stormed and captured historic Manerplaw on December 16, which was Karen National Union (KNU) headquarters for many years. The 69 SAC military camps in Mutraw area after the coup in 2021, now only remains 25 to 30 camps the rest are taken over by the KNU.

On November 11 last year, the Karenni Army, Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF) and resistance allies launched Operation 1111 in Karenni State.

They seized most of Loikaw and almost 90 percent of the state. By March 2024, the KNDF reported the seizure of seven towns and 81 junta bases.

However, with ammunition running low, the groups withdrew from Loikaw in June during a counteroffensive by around 2,000 junta soldiers and militia allies from Hsihseng in southern Shan State.

The Karenni forces are trying to retake Loikaw while the SAC forces are trying to dig in and expand into Karenni forces controlled areas.

The situation now is more or less the same, as the year ends.

Outlook for 2025

The country’s perspective depends on how influential stakeholders and actors on the ground have projected to further their agendas.

The SAC is committed to hold election as a political way out to end the deadlock in the hope international legitimacy may at least partially return, never mind whether it is taken as a valid election or not, of course with the promised help of China and also Russia.

Parallel to it, SAC will combat all anti-junta forces with airstrikes, bombardment and occasional hit squads in Anyar region, while trying to hold ground in some ethnic states big towns that it is still able to hold.

In northern Shan State, the TNLA and MNDAA will stand their ground to be ownership of the captured territories from the SAC. The MNDAA demands of such acceptance has already been rejected in a brokered meeting by the SAC during the meeting in China recently.

The KIA is trying push out the SAC troops completely like the AA is doing and about to achieve its aim. KIA is also actively helping the Bamar revolutionary groups in Anyar, including the NUG/PDF, under Chain of Command for Northern War Region.

The AA, now that only Sittway, Manaung and Kyaukpyu are left to take, it issued a statement emphasizing to honor all international investment and open for political dialog, like the one brokered by China in January 2024, which led to ceasefire agreement. However, it lasted only about half a year.

The AA may be hinting for the SAC to withdraw from the three said cities to spare destructions of the Chinese investments, which is also in the interest of the Chinese. But the junta may not like to go out empty handed and thus there might be discussion between the SAC, China and AA, on how the cake should be divided among themselves, so to speak.

In between from Bangladesh side, the voice to deal with the AA as a political entity becomes louder, with the SAC sure to be pushed out completely from Rakhein State. Most probably, the SAC will be encouraged to withdraw by the Chinese so that the already standing business structures won’t be destroyed or devastated.

As for China, it’s national interest is to exploit a wide variety of economic interest of the whole country, from gas-oil pipelines, economic zones, projected railway lines to Rakhein State from China to make use of Indian Ocean, jade import and most importantly, the rare earth elements extraction from Kachin State. All these will be under the scheme of Belt and Road Initiative and China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

In short, a workable business condition that covers the whole country for China’s national interest.

But all these will depend on if the EROs, Bamar revolutionary groups, NUG/PDF and most importantly, the country’s whole population will agree to the Chinese plan.

The Bamar revolutionary groups and Bamar population won’t easily endorse the Chinese scheme, especially letting Gen Min Aung Hlaing taking the driver’s seat of the country, according to the Chinese prescription.

Thus, it is more likely that the civil war will go on unabated, unless Min Aung Hlaing is ousted or the military junta imploded, due to the lost of Western Military Command in Ann, Rakhein State.