The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang has been telling both the military junta, military council or State Administration Council (SAC) and Beijing that it is ready to negotiate peace as proposed by China since September. Recently the same message has been reiterated again. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also issued a similar statement on November 25 and so did the MNDAA again on December 3.

MNDAA under the pressure from China already issued a similar statement on September 4, vowing not to attack Mandalay city and the southern Shan State capital of Taunggyi and not to collaborate with the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) or any international organization opposed to China.

The Operation 1027 launched last year on October 27 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), the Arakan Army (AA), TNLA and MNDAA, in northern Shan State, which captured a number of junta’s military outposts came to a standstill due to China’s brokered ceasefire Haigeng Agreement, from mid-January to mid-June 2024. But by mid-May the talks collapsed and the fighting resumed on 13 June this year.

To the surprise of many and particularly China the 3BHA took over one military outpost after another until it overran the largest town, Lashio a sort of the northern Shan State capital and home to the junta’s Military Northeastern Command on August 3.

Here China made a political about turn from endorsing the 3BHA Operation 1027 in helping China curb the cyberscam operations in northern Shan State, as military junta was not cooperating due to its involvement in the illegal online undertakings, to intervening on behalf of the military regime from its rapid collapse.

According to Jason Tower in his latest piece “Myanmar’s Resistance Manages to Defy Chinese Pressure — For Now”, published by United States Institute of Peace, on December 5, 2024, the reason seems to be because the MNDAA was thought to be cosying up to the NUG too much, which China could hardly swallow.

“For the first two weeks of August, resistance forces continued to press onward, giving the impression that they would move into Mandalay. Rumors began to spread — even on Chinese-language social media outlets — that a deal had been cut between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) to stand up an NUG office in Lashio and make MNDAA leader Peng Deren the new vice president once the military is defeated. While the MNDAA later dismissed these statements as disinformation, by then, China had already set an unprecedented response in motion,” according to Jason Tower.

From then on, China has come down hard on the MNDAA and TNLA by employing its five-cuts policy of imposing blockades on their regions, including cutting off electricity, water, the internet, and supplies such as fuel, medicine, and foodstuffs. The Chinese government has also restricted the movement of people in and out of the area and tightened controls at border crossings.

Moreover, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mongla are also reprimanded to toe the Chinese line of sanctions against the two ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) or faced consequences.

“China’s bottom line: This “5-cuts policy” should continue to be enforced on the TNLA and MNDAA until they end involvement in revolutionary activity and the latter hands Lashio back to the Myanmar army,” writes Jason Tower.

MNDAA Statement

The MNDAA on December 3, 2024 announced its 5-point statement as below.

In view of people’s welfare and serious war sufferings, to protect and uphold China-Myanmar’s tranquility and peace, to resolve civil war conflict through political means and to practically implement regional peace Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party (MNTJP)/MNDAA announced its position and opinion as the following:

1. It won’t secede from the country and establish a new country. It only is asking for genuine self-administered zone. It will steadfastly protect country’s stability, sovereignty and territories.
2. Starting from today our forces will immediately stop fighting on the spot they arrived and won’t start to attack the military council troops. We hoped that under the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) mediation process we will be able to meet and discuss all issues, including Lashio. We will actively participate in the PRC’s mediation process.
3. Military council must stop all its countrywide airstrikes and ground offensives.
4. In negotiation process MNTJP/MNDAA will send high-level representative delegation and hope to resolve conflict and differing views through political means.
5. Although MNDAA empower and approved political means (to resolve the conflict), it will withhold the rights of self-defense as before.

(NOTE: Unofficial translation by this writer from Burmese language.)

TNLA Statement

The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) issued a 5-point statement on November 25 that it is ready to negotiate and resolve military conflicts in recognition of the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilize the border and cease fire.

In order to establish a stable political situation to end the ongoing military conflicts in the country, it will always cooperate with China’s mediation efforts and continue to cooperate (to achieve) good results.

Most cities and innocent civilians that were captured during Operation 1027 led by the 3BHA are suffering from the consequences of the war due to the military council’s airstrikes.

Therefore, the TNLA is ready to negotiate and resolve military conflicts in support of the local people who are suffering from the war, but it will continue to uphold its right to self-defense.

In addition, the Ta’ang people will fight for the emergence of the Ta’ang State and will always strive to build a federal state that guarantees the right to self-determination of the ethnic people.

Junta gearing to launch offensive against Lashio

Against this backdrop, all indications on the ground are pointing towards the junta gearing to launch offensive against Lashio to retake the Northeastern Military Command. On the other hand, the MNDAA is telling the Chinese that it is ready to talk with the junta under China’s peace mediation process, including the issue of Lashio.

The SAC is reinforcing with thousands of troops in Mongyai and Tangyan and even training personnel to re-establish their administrative apparatus in Lashio, according to a local.

After the capture of Lashio, also the Northeastern Military Command airstrikes, artillery fire, and mortar fire were repeatedly launched against Hoya by the junta, which has been controlled by the MNDAA, all the way stretching to Lashio.

The local said that while drone reconnaissance is being conducted continuously, the MNDAA is also reinforcing Hoya, the main entrance to Lashio from Mongyai, according the recent report of The Irrawaddy.

Analysis

Looking at the northern Shan State war theater, the talks brokered by the Chinese may take place, sooner than later. But whether the ceasefire like Haigeng Agreement that lasted just a few months will come into being or not will depend upon the coercive-mediator-enforcer China.

Studying the wordings of TNLA statement, it almost sound that it is doing this out of politeness and also maybe it has no way to fend off the junta’s airstrikes that is making its planned administration difficult to function, including Chinese sanctions, which no doubt has been frustrating its leadership.

As for the MNDAA it has from the start of September already given in to the Chinese pressure of not cooperating with the NUG and those considered to be pro-West and would also stop the offensive further down to heartland Myanmar.

Now the question for MNDAA is to strike a bargain with the junta on how much of its captured territories it may retain and if the junta is authorized and can make such a deal in front of the mediator China.

The same is also true to the TNLA which has an ambition to achieve Ta’ang State, within the federal union, albeit its captured territories are six-fold more than its original Palaung Self-Administered Zone (SAZ) allotted to it, according to the 2008 Constitution.

However, the catchword here is “rights to self-defense”, which the two said EAOs included in their statements, meaning they can resort to war again anytime they thought is necessary to protect their interest.

Thus, the northern Shan State war theater will depend on if all three stakeholders can agree upon a sort of give-and-take, so that the desire of reopening of border trading may resume, according to the desired projection of the coercive-mediator-enforcer China.

For now, the MNDAA and TNLA will need to ponder on whether they are ready to abandon their original aspirations of uprooting of the military dictatorship system and establishment of a genuine federal democratic union or will agree upon a piece-meal solution through bargaining for some territorial gains and other benefits in return for short term ceasefire.