These days the hot topic making the headlines is none other than China’s upping the ante and bulldozing to push through its national interest by employing its private military companies (PMCs) in Myanmar to safeguard its economic interest.

According to Khit Thit Media of November 23, after establishing a working committee for “Joint Venture Security Company” between military council or State Administration Council (SAC) and China, the joint security team was formed for Kyauk Phyu Project.

Reportedly, Chinese armed forces will be summoned for the security of Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone Project, which will be carried out by China and Military Council Security Cooperative in Kyauk Phyu Township, Rakhine State. Military source said that they will be installing ready-made jammer, deploying intelligence drones and installing mines in the special economic zone project environment.

General Kyaw Shwe Tun leads the security team cooperated by China and military council to protect the Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone Project invested by China in Rakhine State. It is known that Chinese security forces and technicians will soon start to implement security measures for the Special Economic Zone Project.

“The Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone will not only install security technology, but it will also include installing reinforced jammers, deploying advanced reconnaissance drones, and deploying destructive mines to prevent intrusion into the project environment.” Armed forces from China will also be there. The population of the armed forces that will arrive is not yet known. The military source said that the security of major projects and the safety of Chinese professionals and staff will be taken as the main responsibility.

General Kyaw Shwe Tun, Chairman of Kyauk Phyu Special Economic Zone Management Committee, and officials from China CITIC Group Company, Chinese security members, Chinese technicians are also involved.

According to RFA report of November 21, “The firewall between the PMCs and the People’s Liberation Army has always been thin. Much of the corporate leadership as well as rank and file came out of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), People’s Armed Police, or other Chinese security ministries.”

Than Soe Naing, a well known political analyst and former Communist Party Burma (CPB) member, in his recent interview with Thet Htwe Naing Media also echoes the same, saying that the Chinese PMCs are in fact recruited from former PLA and thus, they are taking orders from Chinese government directly.

“Recent reports from the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Congress on Chinese military and economic power contain no reference to Chinese private security companies (PSCs). While estimates suggest as many as 20 to 40 Chinese PSCs are operating abroad in some 40 countries, China operates more than 7,000 PSCs domestically. In the context of increasing threats to Chinese infrastructure and Chinese nationals overseas and the Chinese government’s unwillingness to deploy the People’s Liberation Army abroad, PSCs are a well-positioned tool for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to project power abroad,” according to CSIS Briefing titled, “A Stealth Industry: The Quiet Expansion of Chinese Private Security Companies”, published on January 12, 2022.

The likely scope of Chinese PMCs deployment

It is quite clear that the deployment of the Chinese PMCs may also cover all the areas mentioned below.

China’s wide range of economic interests in Myanmar include special economic zone and proposed deep-water intermodal container port in Kyauk Phyu, the Wanbao copper mines, hydro electric plants in Kachin and northern Shan states, oil and gas pipelines that extend to Kunming in southwestern China, and jade and rare earth mines in Kachin State, which 90% of them are under the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) or ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) and the opposition, parallel National Unity Government (NUG) and its people’s defense forces (PDFs).

Thus, the deployment of the Chinese PMCs is in fact the de facto deployment of PLA in Myanmar and has to be taken as such, according to the RFA report of November 21.

Response from ant-junta forces

Two most important anti-junta groups are NUG/PDF and the EROs or EAOs. Let us look at their positions in the light of present unfolding political scenarios.

The NUG Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung openly rejected the Chinese government’s interference of Myanmar’s internal affairs by siding with the military junta and also dictating the EROs not to be involved in relationship with the NUG, while conducting questions and answers during a program “Week of Public Activities” on November 23, according to the Khit Thit Media.

“No one can tell us what kind of political system we should have in our country. This is also the right of a sovereign country. Now we are facing the anger of the people. Especially regarding China’s invitation to the terrorist coup leader Min Aung Hlaing visit to China, I have informed the Chinese people in charge in advance that our people will be very angry if they do this. And now that this has happened, there is (now) an issue,” according to Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung.

“Another issue is that the (demand on the) EROs who are currently fighting for their right to self-determination should not deal with the NUG. I have already responded to this. Since it is an internal matter it should not interfere. As this issue is about our ethnic revolutionary armed ally groups living together with the NUG no one has the right to tell us with whom to deal with or with whom not. I have also responded that this is our freedom,” she added to make her position clear.

As we all know that China is bent on punishing the EROs and ramped up its direct engagement and support for the SAC, as can be seen by recent development, the question arises whether its implementation is really working.

All available sources are indicating the primary EROs such as the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Arakan Army (AA) are not listening to the Chinese demand and are bent on continuing with their original projection of uprooting the military dictatorship system and establishment of a federal democratic union. The exception is the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or the Kokang which stopped fighting according to the Chinese demanded but wouldn’t budge on the ultimatum of immediate withdrawal from Lashio, the junta’s North Eastern Military Command which it captured a few months back.

The KIA isn’t considered a China’s proxy, as it is seen as Western oriented, whereas the MNDAA is taken as such for belonging to Han Chinese ethnic group, while China is having only limited influence on the TNLA and AA and not really proxies in a sense as China would like them to be categorized.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and Mongla or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), including the Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) are, more or less, sitting on the fence or maintaining wait-and-see stance and haven’t completely endorsed the Chinese stance of backing the SAC all the way wholeheartedly. However, they can be considered as weighing the possibility of whether to tilt towards the people’s aspirations movement or China’s forceful and pushy political agenda to bet on the junta’s horse exclusively.

The EROs aren’t issuing public statements, like the NUG, but their political stances are quite clear that most will continue with the struggle and won’t bow to China’s demand.

In short, the Operation 1027 that started at the end of 2023 will continue as Shan-Man Operation and Spring Revolution, including KIA and AA combating the of junta’s troops in their turfs and wider, besides the Bamar revolutionary groups under NUG and local resistance groups fighting the junta countrywide. In other words, China’s effort to go ahead with its agenda will not be as easy as it has anticipated.

In the same vein, Online Global Seminars Convening Committee Spokesman Ko Yin Aye interview with Thet Htwe Naing (THN) Public Media on November 11 said the following.

He said China still has the time to fix its wrong policy-making and the people has to convince it. Because if China doesn’t change the junta’s opposition may likely lose.

The anti-junta forces need to show that they are winning and China shouldn’t back the wrong horse, as it is the opposition people’s government and not the junta that will guarantee China’s economic interest. The opposition groups not disrupting or taking destructive actions against China’s projects and instead protecting them should be seen as a good will and incentive, as a start, he elaborates.

The Global Seminar which was participated by EROs, NUG, National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC), including domestic and exiled groupings decided to work on the agenda of changing China’s attitude through diplomatic channel and pragmatic approach on the ground. But if necessary applying appropriates measures and pressure to drive home the point that they mean business won’t also be ruled out, according to the spokesman, whatever that was meant by that.

He said, the people’s mind are made up to evict the military junta and no amount of forceful pressure will change the aspirations of the people. Thus correcting the wrong policy may be most beneficial for China and the people of Myanmar is the final core message delivered by the spokesman on behalf of the people of Myanmar to China.

What will the extra pressure of deploying Chinese PMCs means practically?

A host of questions will be asked what would happen exactly on the ground. For example whether the Chinese PMCs will just look after its economic interest and help free up the junta’s troops from the task, deployment in contested areas, fighting alongside with the junta’s troops, sharing intelligence and information and so on will be on the agenda.

A Shan political analyst also pointed out in his opinion piece that with the vast unmovable economic projects need to be protected by the Chinese PMCs’s operatives countrywide. These troops could also likely be used in beefing up security for the planned SAC’s election in November 2025. If this happens, the EROs on the ground will either be compromised, recruited, sidelined and even become irrelevant, he said.

One sure thing about the recent development is that China being at the driver’s seat in changing the political course of Myanmar, rather than the junta, is raising the stakes and upping the ante in every possible way, as if there is no more time to wait.

The detention of the Kokang’s leader in Kunming and the planned deployment of its PMCs or mercenaries are the unmistakable indications that China is bent on implementing its agenda whether we like it or not,

India entering the scene?

With the ASEAN ineffective as usual and even more so after China has backed the SAC officially and practically since General Min Aung Hlaing’s China’s recent visit; indifference of the US and West due to the pressing Ukraine and Gaza issues; the anti-junta opposition has actually no where to turn to. But there is still a faint hope that India is becoming a little more interested in Myanmar than usual, so do the Bangladesh which has moved away from Chinese domination to the Western orbit due the change of government a few months ago.

According to the SHAN report of November 12, in Hurn Kayang opinion piece in Shan version, New Delhi has been in contact with the KIA, AA and Chin National Front (CNF). In fact, India has donated 30 tons of medicines and medical supplies to the Chinland Council after talks with the three ethnic rebel groups last month. 10 more tons of aid supplies were also said to be given to the Chin Brotherhood. The KIA and AA were also given promises on forthcoming humanitarian aids accordingly.

The opinion piece writes: “Now that China is determined to support the junta and its future plans and ensure to help with the success of the election in front of all the countries, officially announcing it, no one will be allowed to interfere in China’s Myanmar agenda. On the other hand, it can also be concluded that China has turned its back on the rebel groups, the NUG and those it sees as close to the West. Therefore, India as a neighboring largest democracy country must work harder to shore up the democratic groups opposed to the Myanmar military regime.”

Moreover, on November 24 Narinjara reported that Bangladesh Foreign Ministry Advisor Md Touhid Hossain said that “Ignoring AA will not be realistic” in addressing the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.

He said this at the National Level Seminar on Rohingya Policy and Governance organized by Bangladesh Institute of International and Strategic Studies (BISS) and North South University (NSU) Institute of South Asian Policy and Governance (SIPG) on Sunday.

Although Bangladesh cannot interact directly with non-governmental organizations like Arakan Army (AA), the Foreign Minister’s Adviser said it will not be able to solve the Rohingya crisis without thinking about adding AA (as dialogue partner) which controls the Rakhine State.

“Ignoring AA will not be realistic,” he said.

What now?

There is no doubt about it that China is raising the stake as high as it can and that there is no turning point. In other words, do things according to its road map and prescription or face the consequence of being rolled over.

On the other hand, the anti-junta forces also won’t give in, with or without external help. In this sense the head-on clash will be inevitable, as they were asked to kowtow to the junta and follow the China’s peace agenda without question.

The intense pressure in form of China’s sanctions, coupled with material and financial help, including now militarily shoring up the junta, the anti-junta opposition may have to be more creative in anyway it can.

The recent Online Global Seminars Convening Committee Spokesman’s statement is a correct move to try and change China’s attitude to the side of Myanmar people and also to be on the right side of the history. In this respect, China may have to curb its cold-war mentality and phobia of West power meddling in Myanmar affairs. In fact, the West has without saying it aloud already accepted it as China’s backyard and its handling it in an appropriate proper way for the benefit of the majority population. China only needs to back the right horse and it will see that a win-win outcome will usher in, in no time.

However, since the near future isn’t predictable the ethnic-democratic alliance should be more creative, proactive rather than reactive, which may help in navigating the turbulent political waters effectively and live to fight another day.