After a little more than three and a half years of military coup, the junta known as State Administration Council (SAC) call for peace addressing the anti-junta groups like assorted ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), including independent, unaffiliated local resistance groups, came as quite a surprise to Myanmar watchers and experts alike.
On September 26, the SAC issued a statement which justifies its military coup of February 2021 as an attempt to right the wrong of the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) election fraud, which isn’t true or doesn’t hold water at all, indicating that it vowed to hold free and fair election to redress the failure, coupled with undertaking population census beginning this October. It further urged all the anti-junta forces, particularly the PDFs and EAOs to lay down their arms, participate in party politics and entering election to resolve the political problems through political means.
In the statement’s last paragraph 3, it writes: “Now in order to hold multi-party general election population census taking to obtain correct voter list will be energetically started on October 1. All anti-State Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), destructive terrorist organizations, destructive PDFs, considering losses and damages caused to the country because of armed destructive policy should join hand with the people and give up (their) armed destructive policy in order to achieve eternal peace and development; are welcomed to communicate with (the authorities) in order to either follow party politics or election path, in resolving political problems through political means.” { NOTE: Unofficial translation from Burmese language by the writer}.
As can be seen, the use of language tone by the SAC is very impolite and downgrading to the anti-junta forces in nature, showing that it is placing itself in a superior position and sort of forcing them to capitulate, when in fact it is losing militarily and politically on the ground.
Anti-junta forces’ responses
All the ethnic-democratic anti-junta forces responses are outright rejection and overwhelming negative to the SAC so-called peace overtures.
Karenni Interim Executive Council (IEC) issued a four-point statement on September 28, vowing to strive for genuine federal system according to the people’s wish. And as a federal unit it rejected the SAC peace overtures, saying that it is a fake peace call and only aiming at divide-and-rule policy, to create a political way out for itself.
Karenni State IEC Secretary (2) Ko Ba Nyar told RFA that there is no reason to discuss with military council. He told the RFA: “We have no reason to discuss anything with a person who is talking nonsense without direction. We cannot accept its creating division among us and cannot accept its trick of population census taking to hoodwink the international community.”
Population census taking is link to achieve correct voter registration list, which the junta is committed to hold in November 2025.
On September 26, Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) Vice Chief of Staff General Gun Maw pointed out that the SAC peace call underlined the junta’s excuse, or rather a make-up reason for its 2021 military coup; announcement of the planned population census taking; and the inadequate calling of junta’s peace overtures, addressed to the PDFs and EAOs, in his three short sentences in Burmese, in his Facebook. He didn’t mentioned anything more than this, leaving it for the people to speculate whether KIO is open to the invitation if properly proposed or would still reject it.
The Karen National Union (KNU) Spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee told the BBC on September 28 that peace talks will only be possible if the SAC could agree to the anti-junta forces “common political objectives”. They are: “Firstly, the military must be out of politics, in addition to the acceptance to be under the reformed civilian rule. Secondly, since no one respects (or accepts) the 2008 constitution anymore, necessary constitution to establish a federal union have to be drawn up. Thirdly, transitional justice for all crimes committed by the junta needs to be arranged and met. If the SAC doesn’t accept these points, there is no need to talk about the dialogue, and we will continue with what we need to do,” according to spokesman.
Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) Information Officer Lwe Ye Oo said: “Firstly the military council is being defeated politically and militarily from all sides. And to uplift its people’s moral it is employing a sort of political ploy and psychological warfare tactics.”
“The military council wanted to disarm us and participate in elections after the peace talks, which is impossible.”
“It has taken power by force and destroying the country by using heavy weapons targeting civilians and civilian targets.”
“Another thing is that it declares us a terrorist and attacks us, and now telling us to make peace is like we have to beg on our knees for mercy, which we cannot accept.”
“We will not discuss peace with terrorists,” Lwe Ye Oo told the BBC.
Chin National Front (CNF) Spokesman Salai Htet Ni regarding the SAC peace call said: “This is to prolong the military council’s military dictatorship through political ploy. It is its routine play tricks and not new to us. It is looking for a political way out in the face of international community and neighboring countries’ criticism,” reported People’s Spring recently.
Maung Saung Kha, leader of the Bamar People Liberation Army (BPLA) said: “Under the 2008 Constitution, there is no justice, and peace cannot be achieved. We are not interested in this invitation either. It is just a show to make China more supportive of their only way out.”
Ko Osmond of Mandalay PDF Spokesperson said: “The peace talks invited by the military council will not change the path we are on. As MDY-PDF, we will continue to do the work we have to do,” reported People’s Spring.
National Unity Government (NUG) Foreign Minister Daw Zin Mar Aung told the BBC on September 29: “ I just want to say that this letter (SAC Statement) has no effect on anyone. I see that it only affects its (SAC) interests. Because I see two parts. SAC says that politics should be solved by political means, but on the other hand, it (demands to) give up their (anti-junta forces) weapons and to participate in the election. So, it isn’t solving politics by political means means and telling to do what it says is not solving political problems by political means. In that letter we see that they are essentially opposites. This is not a political offer. It is not an offer made out of political will to discuss politics in a political way. In order to protect its benefit, it is like saying, it will hold election, enter election, form political parties, and give up arms.”
Daw Zin Mar Aung outlined three basic points of junta leaving the political arena, accept federal democratic constitution and redress all injustice and injuries of the country according to the to be drafted constitution, which can be interpreted as transitional justice.
She said that NUG and allies are always open for dialogue if the mentioned basic three points are met.
Perspectives
As we can see, most EAOs actively fighting the junta are, more or less, for the exclusion of the junta from future political arena. But the 7 EAO Alliance, which signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) of 2015, may be different and would opt for continued dialogue with the junta as has always been the case.
With the Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) opting out of the confrontation mode with the junta because of China’s pressure, the Shan-Man Operation in the areas connecting Shan State and Mandalay Region, which is supposed to be the extension of the second phase Operation 1027 launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) may be softened. But it’s a bit too early to speculate how the scenario will unfold.
The junta on the other hand is, no doubt, in need of an exit strategy, which has already been worked out through holding elections in 2025 and taking population census, with the promised help from China.
Originally, China has been pushing for all-inclusive participation of all political parties like NLD, Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and Arakan National Party (ANP) and so on to be credible, which India and Thailand also insisted upon. But for now we don’t know if the junta will accommodate it by releasing all political prisoners, including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, as demanded by the NLD recently, and if political dialogue is ever to take place.
Junta is lately toning down it’s aggressiveness by playing on the angst for the country’s disintegration and appealing for unity, which the junta’s spokesman Zaw Min Tun has made public in an extra-ordinarily polite manner following the junta’s peace overtures statement very recently.
Regardless of the active anti-junta forces total rejection of the junta’s peace call, a lot could still happen until November 2025 depending on how the junta will modify, repackage it’s peace proposal and how much concession it can dole out, to change the mindset of anti-junta, ethnic-democratic forces fighting the military regime.
For now, if the junta’s holding election as an exit strategy may create a soft-landing cushion for itself is far from certain.
 call for peace addressing the anti-junta groups like assorted ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs), including independent, unaffiliated local resistance groups, came as quite a surprise to Myanmar watchers and experts alike.){kind=link}