Troops movements by the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) have caused Myanmar’s complicated civil war to shift in surprising directions.

These moves have temporarily stopped the conflict between the Myanmar military and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) led by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).

Questions have been raised by the UWSA’s reinforcement of soldiers in Tangyan Township. Although the UWSA spokesman in Lashio says it’s for security concerns, local observers stress a more hidden intention. Like their previous capture of Hopang, the UWSA might perhaps exercise power and control Tangyan without confrontation as it is the leader of the Federal Political Negotiating and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), of which the MNDAA and TNLA are members.

The position of China in this situation is interesting. Although China is dissatisfied with the Myanmar military’s management of online scams along its border, it is probable that China will not advocate for the regime’s complete collapse. They think that the revolutionary groups are incapable of achieving victory. Consequently, the UWSA and SSPP/SSA’s actions could be interpreted as a component of a Chinese strategy to establish alternative trade routes that have been disrupted by the ongoing conflict. The Mandalay-Muse-China route has been disrupted due to the TNLA and MNDAA control of the areas. Therefore, the move of the UWSA and the SSPP/SSA was to open a new trading route from Mandalay, Tangyan, and Panghsang to Yunan’s China.

In addition, as the opposition groups are not seen as a cohesive political alternative China and the West might keep the military regime afloat by backing Min Aung Hliang’s planned general election.
However, it is still unknown exactly why the UWSA moved its troops and what China’s real goals are. These events, though, draw attention to the changing alliances and intricate geopolitical calculations under the influence of Myanmar’s continuous conflict.