Ahead of the parliamentary session in March, the military coup leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing has enacted the Union Consultative Council Law, which some legal experts say could place the council’s authority above that of the president.

On February 3, the National Defense and Security Council, led by Min Aung Hlaing, issued the “Union Consultative Council Law” and asked the President to form the council.

The announced law is presented as a way to strengthen democracy, build a union based on federalism, promote prosperity, and boost food security. The council will have at least five members, including a chairman and a secretary, and will advise on national security, rule of law, foreign relations, peace, and law enforcement.

Critics see it as a move to replace or imitate the former State Counselor role held by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, giving the council — and potentially its chairman — power surpassing the presidency.

If Min Aung Hlaing becomes chairman, he could retain his role as Commander-in-Chief of Defense and maintain control over the country’s powers with even greater influence than the president.

“The Union Consultative Council is seen as a body above the President. Looking at its processes and responsibilities, it is seen as a body that will give guidelines to the President. It is considered to be a council that will be above the President and the government. Who will be the President of the country is no longer important. Who is the chairman of the council is important,” the retired law professor of Yangon University, who is currently based in Yangon, told the Yangon Times.

Local political circles, however, are criticizing the Union Consultative Council as a replacement for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s position as State Counselor during the NLD era.

If Min Aung Hlaing takes the position of Council Chairman, he can continue to hold the position of Commander-in-Chief of Defense and continue to control all the powers of the country calmly, which is even more influential than the presidency.

Burma Lawyers’ Council

Burma Lawyers’ Council urges the public to reject the Union Consultative Council proposed by Min Aung Hlaing, calling it a move to prolong military rule.

According to U Myint Thein Aung, Secretary General of the Burma Lawyers Council, this body did not exist before and seems to be inspired by the role of State Counselor under NLD-led government from 2016 to 2020, which was thought to hold higher authority than the president.

He suggested the plan reflects resistance to the public’s demand for a genuine federal democracy, as past councils were dominated by the military, a key reason for rejecting the 2008 Military-drafted Constitution.

2 Lawyer-Analysts

Lawyer-Analysts believe the incoming government will extend military rule under a civilian façade, with lawmakers closely aligned to the top brass.

According to the Reuters, “The formation of the Union Consultative Council represents a significant institutional shift, likely to create a ‘super-body’ designed to hold supreme authority above the executive, legislative, and judicial branches,” Mr Naing Min Khant, programme associate at the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar think-tank, said.

He said its mandate is exceptionally broad, granting it control over every critical component of national security and the legislative process

“I believe that this newly appointed Union Consultative Council will oversee the new (military) Commander-in-Chief on one hand, and the government on the other,” said U Kyee Myint, another well known lawyer, adding that the body would prevent any successor to Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing as military chief from holding too much power.

Outlook

For now, it’s hard to predict how things will play out once the parliamentary session kicks off in March. There’s a chance Min Aung Hlaing might go for the council chairmanship, as it would give him significant power over the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.

As everyone knows, Min Aung Hlaing is eager to become president. Even USDP Chairman Khin Ye has said he has no ambition for the role, likely to make way for him and perhaps to avoid upsetting him.

However, with the verdict on the Rohingya genocide intent allegation still pending in the ICJ, and the possibility that the Myanmar military could lose the case—potentially speeding up the ICC arrest warrant—Min Aung Hlaing might reconsider and choose the council chairmanship instead of the presidency.

It’s possible he will decide to run for the presidency and fight it out like Putin, seeing it as a better option than keeping a low profile without power and later being handed over to the ICC in The Hague, similar to Rodrigo Duterte, the former president of the Philippines.

Apart from that, there are rumors circulating from Naypyitaw that the missile attack on Mandalay Palace over a week ago, during which Min Aung Hing was reportedly about to perform a shaman-like ritual and narrowly escaped harm, has unsettled him mentally. This is said to have kept him out of the public eye for a week and may be influencing his current decision-making.

Either way, we’ll just have to wait and see how the rest of Min Aung Hlaing’s script unfolds in March.