Within two and a half month Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) has lost Nawnghkio and Kyaukme back to the Myanmar military junta or State Security and Peace Council (SSPC).

Following the fall of Kyaukme, the TNLA spokesperson Lway Ye Oo told the media on lessons to be learned by its organization.

The TNLA said it had temporarily withdrawn from Kyaukme town in Northern Shan State (NSS) because it was difficult to continue the resistance due to the imbalance in manpower and ammunition.

“The situation is we have withdrawn. Right now, at this moment the military council is able to enter the city and then take control of it,” Lwey Ye Oo, a spokesperson for the TNLA, told the People’s Spring media.

TNLA Spokesperson

The TNLA’s spokesperson made the statement on October 2, the day after the TNLA withdrew from Kyaukme town, which it had occupied for more than a year, in response to People’s Spring’s interview.

She also said that the TNLA had learned lessons from the withdrawal from Kyaukme and Nawnghkio towns in NSS and would review the strengths and weaknesses, making necessary preparations, and take actions.

“There are many lessons to be taken (learned). Regarding the many battles we fought, some have written based on their own opinions. Some also sent us letters. We will learn the lessons and review them making necessary preparations, analyzing our strengths and weaknesses, and then would carry out the implementation,” said Lwey Ye Oo.

The TNLA said that it was not a show of control over Kyaukme and Nawnghkio towns and was not waging a show of war (probably aiming to counter the accusation of fighting a fake war). It also said that it had fought in the best possible way. The TNLA also said that for now, it has only temporarily withdrawn from Kyaukme and Nawnghkio.

In addition, the TNLA has no political agreement with the military council.

“There are turns and changes in military affairs. There are times when we are advantageous and times when we were at disadvantageous. The one who is well-prepared will win the war. Therefore, our side will also make the necessary preparations, learning lessons from our strengths and weaknesses, and then re-adjust so that the next time there may be changes (in future armed confrontation). At the moment, I can’t say anything much exactly,” said Lwey Ye Oo.

In addition, the TNLA invited all armed forces in northern Shan State and all revolutionary forces to join the military council.

“We are always willing to cooperate. At the moment, some have cooperated, while others have not. As much as possible, our side will always keep the door open and cooperate,” said Lwey Ye Oo.

“Currently, we have to temporarily withdraw because it is difficult to continue the resistance due to the imbalance of weapons and manpower,” she said.

“For now, we have to cooperate as much as possible with those who are participating and supporting us with confidence. We stand with the people. The recent situation we are seeing could be investigated and would try to strengthen it, (subsequently) there may be a turning point (to our advantage),” said Lwey Ye Oo.

TNLA planned meeting in October in China

The TNLA will meet with the military in October after losing control of the towns it had captured during Operation 1027, TNLA spokesman Lwey Ye Oo told Mandalay Free Press (MFP).

On August 27, the TNLA and the military held another round of talks in Kunming, China, brokered by China. The TNLA said it would give up Kyaukme and Hsipaw, but the talks collapsed when the military demanded Mantung and Namhsan.

The next round of talks is still scheduled for this month (October) in Kunming, but the military has already captured Kyaukme.

The military recaptured Nawnghkio on July 16 this year and retook control of Kyaukme on October 1.

When asked by MFP what the main issues will be discussed during this meeting with the military, Lwey Ye Oo said: “Regarding the meeting I can’t say anything yet. There are no instructions from above. There will be a meeting this month. The exact date of the meeting has not been announced. At the moment nothing much can be said.”

Opinion of Khun Okker

According to Channel News Independent (CNI) News report of October 2, 2025, TNLA is facing military weakness due to the loss of allies, Colonel Khun Okker, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S), which has signed the NCA, told CNI.

The TNLA is a local organization, so it is facing opposition from its best allies [Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)] and the local population when it is struggling to regain manpower, weapons, and public support.

On the other hand, the Myanmar Army, as a state organization, can exert more pressure militarily and regain its advantage in all aspects because it is able to provide weapons and manpower in the long run, Colonel Khun Okker, chairman of the Pa-O National Liberation Army (PNLO-NCA/S), told CNI.

He said, “Overall, the best allies (support) have weakened, and (because of this) we now see the Ta’ang’s strength has weakened. And in the long run, the state organization, have more and more opportunities to support and fill in (what is needed). (In contrast) the local ordinary organizations, what we called “fill,” is very difficult to immediately replenish the manpower, material resources and gain public support. In the mean time, local opposition (against the TNLA) and local allied organizations have become its opposition. In civilian terms, it is having fewer friends. So it should reconsider its (mindset and false policy implementation).”

On 27 October 2023, the TNLA launched Operation 1027, a joint operation involving the Kokang or MNDAA, Arakan Army (AA), Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), Burma National Revolutionary Army (BNRA), Bamar People’s Liberation Army (BPLA), Mandalay People’s Defense Force (MDY-PDF) , Danu People’s Liberation Army (DPLA), and People’s Liberation Army (PLA), armed wing of the Communist Party of Burma (CPB), in NSS and Mandalay Region.

During the operation, the TNLA captured Namkham, Namhsan, Mantong, Mong Ngaw, Namtu, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Nawnghkio, Moe Meik or Mongmit, Mong Long, Kutkai in NSS, and Mogok in Mandalay Region.

While the Burmese military regained control of Kyaukme, in the aftermath of second phase Operation 1027, TNLA expelled other armed groups in the area it had captured, including the KIA, the SSPP, and the People’s Defense Force (PDF), and severed military and political ties. In other words, it becomes greedy and tried to incorporate the captured territories as its own to be lumped into its aspired Ta’ang State formation.

Similarly, there was a dispute over the administration of Kutkai region with the Kokang MNDAA, which had fought together in Operation 1027.

Then, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which provided the TNLA with the largest amount of arms and ammunition, held a meeting with leaders of the TNLA, MNDAA, and SSPP in Panghsang on August 20, 2025, and announced that they would no longer provide arms, money, or other assistance to any armed group. Reportedly, this decision was taken due to the pressure from China, which has detained some UWSA leaders and also frozen its organization’s assets of billions of Chinese yuan invested in China, according to its leadership press briefing.

Shan Editor Talk

In the monthly SHAN Editor Talk on October 3, Editor-in-Chief Sai Merng also echoed the same concerning the fall of Kyaukme following the capitulation of Nawnghkio more than two months earlier.

On question of whether NSS armed conflict will intensify, he said that this doesn’t need to be asked, as the armed conflict situation would exacerbate definitely without having to ask for prediction.

“The real point is that we discussed about the fall of Nawnghkio and we analyzed that we should learn the lessons from it and made corrections as soon as possible,” he said.

“Now as we have said after Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Namkham, Kutkai, Hsipaw, including Hsenwi will eventually fall. This indicates the support that the military junta has been receiving supports (militarily, economically and diplomatically) from foreign countries is strengthening it. And with these supports and encouragement the junta is having more advantages in all aspects (in conflict with the anti-junta groups),” he explained.

“One is the materials used in the battlefields such as guns, drones and jammers. All these are technically advanced in stages. While the junta is becoming more advanced and strengthened, the revolutionary side is becoming less cohesive in unity and alliance-building,” he elaborated.

“On the other hand, during the Kyaukme battle we could see quite clearly the creation of ethnic conflict between the the TNLA and SSPP, which have been propagated and exacerbating the conflict between the Ta’ang Palaung and the Shan/Tai. All these aided, one way or the other, the prolongation of military dictatorship system. Because if the revolutionary side is divided, the military junta is going to score points (which means winning against the anti-junta groups) and create an opportunity to strike,” he reasoned.

“Now the junta doesn’t even need to do it (divide-and-rule), as the ethnic conflict has been ongoing in NSS. It isn’t a good prospect for the revolutionary forces,” he pointed out.

This shows the weakness of the revolutionary forces. As it is the recapturing of NSS territories by the junta may continue. And the junta may come after other Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) in NSS, one after another, if the revolutionary forces don’t mend their ways, Sai Merng cautioned.

That is why the EAOs should learn the lessons and start a new approach, with new unity formation to confront the junta and fight to eradicate the military dictatorship system and establishment of the people’s aspired federal democratic union.

NUG for new government setup

Meanwhile, the National Unity Government (NUG) and different EAOs have woken up to the hard reality of “united we stand” motto, without which they won’t be able to deliver.

Very recently on October 3, in PVTV Dr Zaw Wai Soe, NUG Union Minister for the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Education said: “The NUG formed in 2021 can’t continue to go on with the same pattern in 2025. We have all discussed and talked over on EAO leaders involvement in the formation, unification and building (of new government setup) approach. All are also in agreement.”

Analysis

It is true that the junta’s forced recruitment or conscription has been successful enough to fill up the needed canon fodders for its army, even though they were used as human shield and human waves in its counteroffensive against the anti-junta EAOs and NUG forces, indicating its lack of empathy, moral poverty and corruption to the core.

It is also correct the the military, diplomatic and economic help were rendered by China and Russia, including India and some ASEAN countries are making a difference. And this has changed the pattern of power balance in favor of the military junta, even though it’s still a long way to regain back all the territories of some 60% back from the revolutionary forces in a short time.

The TNLA on its part talked about lessons to be learned from the recent loss of Nawnghkio and Kyaukme to the military junta, although it doesn’t spell out clearly what they are supposed to mean.

In this respect Khun Okker and SHAN Editor-in-Chief Sai Merng’s analysis are quite appropriate speculation which has to be taken seriously. They are none other than, the correction of its narrow ethnonationalism and territorial expansionism mindset at the expense of the non-Ta’ang multi-ethnic groups co-cohabiting the Shan State. In addition, the TNLA unscrupulous and aggressive treatment of its allies both from Burma heartland and NSS originated EAOs are working to to its disadvantage. No wonder, the TNLA has to almost fight the war against the military junta alone.

Of course, China’s opting for the junta’s supremacy stance and help rendered, including pressures on the EAOs in NSS also played an important role.

But the situation unfolding today is more of the TNLA own doing than the upgraded military might of the junta, which makes the TNLA handicapped in battlefields.

True, the only unmatched sector is the junta’s air force, which the EAOs seem powerless without foreign help and without air defense system. But the EAOs and all anti-junta groups will have to find ways to counter this.

At the end of the day, not only the TNLA has to mend its way of doing things, all the rest EAOs in NSS, especially the MNDAA, would need to embrace the motto of “unity in diversity” and “diverse actions, common goals”. Because it is impossible to achieve freedom, equality, federalism and democracy as individual ethnic state or political entity, but only achievable with unity among all anti-junta ethnic-democratic forces, which AA leader Gen. Tun Myat Naing rightly pointed out, based on his revolutionary experience, in his latest interview a few weeks ago with The Irrawaddy.