On October 17-18, 2024, H.E. Mr. Deng Xijun, Chinese Special Envoy for Asian Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, met with General Gam Shawng, Chairman of the Kachin Independence Army/Organization (KIA/O), to discuss putting an end to fighting between the New Democratic Army-Kachin (NDAK), a Border Guard Force, and the Pangwa area. However, the KIA ignored China’s orders and proceeded to clash with the NDAK, capturing three of their strongholds in the region.

Following their unsuccessful meeting with General Gam Shawng, the Chinese team asked General N’ Ban La, former KIA chairman, for assistance. Once again, this seems to be unsuccessful.
It is apparent that KIA was able to negotiate with a superpower country like China because it had the people’s support.

China, on the other hand, has put pressure on the groups fighting the Myanmar military regime by shutting down border gate trade along the borders controlled by the KIA, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), and the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA). This has caused in a tripling of goods costs in these areas.

In addition, with China on its side, the Myanmar military regime launched intense offensives against the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) using air strikes to reclaim the regions captured by the 3HBA forces.

The influence exerted by China has significantly affected the 3HBA members, who initiated the 1027 Operation aimed at dismantling the military regime. The MNDAA is expected to withdraw its troops from Lashio and Hsenwi townships.

The TNLA, supported by the People Defense Forces (PDFs), is determined to engage in combat against the Myanmar military regime. Nonetheless, they encounter difficulties caused by China’s insistence on cutting supplies.

The Arakan Army (AA) remains the only 3BHA member not directly influenced by Chinese pressure. This is primarily due to its control over regions where significant Chinese mega projects are underway, coupled with its geographical proximity to Bangladesh, a nation allied with the United States of America.

However, the Myanmar military regime continues to show progress, indicating that it has regained control over certain regions in northern Shan State.

Thus, this should be a lesson for ethnic armed groups. So, without securing community support, their ability to sustain authority will be compromised.