Is the Breakup Between MNDAA and NUG true?

Before the second wave of the 1027 Operation, members of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) also a member, were called to a workshop in Kunming, Yunnan Province, which was reportedly organized by China.

However, the gathering turned out to be an official meeting with the Chinese officials, who called on assistance in safeguarding border stability. The Chinese government made five demands which include (1) the State Administration Council (SAC) and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) must refrain from threatening the security of the Chinese-Myanmar border (2) safeguarding the safety of Chinese citizens and enterprises in Myanmar (3 If any group collaborates with the National Unity Government (NUG) and People Defense Forces (PDFs) in combating the Myanmar military, China will take serious measures (4) collaboratively crack down on cyber scams, online gambling and drugs along the borders (5) China opposes any kind of cooperation between Myanmar’s military or ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and Western countries.

However, China’s efforts to stop them weren’t successful. The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) ignored their demands and launched the second wave of 1027 Operation on June 25.

In the midst of the crisis, Mr. Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, conferred with SAC’s leader Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw and extended an offer of a three-billion-dollar loan, as well as his support for the SAC’s proposed 2025 election and census survey.

In addition, Mr. Wang Yi reiterated his advocacy for Myanmar’s election and peace during the 9th Mekong-Lancang Cooperation (MLC) Foreign Ministers Meeting in Chiang Mai.

Nevertheless, the resistance groups persisted in ignoring Chinese demands, launching their attacks in almost all of the townships in northern Shan State and capturing the Myanmar North-eastern Military Command in Lashio.

However, in order to take back the territories, the SAC regime started a series of fierce attacks, including airstrikes, with the help of China. Simultaneously, China continues to exert pressure on the resistance groups by cutting electricity and internet services, as well as closing border trade gateways to stop them from acquiring supplies from China.

Moreover, China exerted pressure on the MNDAA last week to cease combating the Myanmar military. The MNDAA then announced that they would cease their operations in Mandalay and Taunggyi and would not engage in any collaboration with the NUG or PDFs.

The MNDAA’s declaration of its separation from the NUG indicates that they lack a firm political strategy. In turn, the MNDAA chooses China as its side. This is a good lesson learned for resistance groups.

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