The Shweli City Security Committee’s recent ultimatum to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to immediately halt conflicts has great implications for both the TNLA and its ally, the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA).

The 3BHA, which comprises the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), has been actively involved in fighting against the Myanmar military in coordination with the National Unity Government (NUG). The joint offensives against Myanmar’s military under the so-called “1027 Operation,” have led the TNLA and MNDAA to capture and control almost all of northern Shan State, including its key strategic military commander. Similarly, the AA has captured the majority of the Arakan state.

This ultimatum was published to the public in the aftermath of the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi visiting Myanmar and meeting with the State Administration Council (SAC) leader, General Min Aung Hlaing as well as representatives from the United States of America, and the United Nations. Although debating about its authenticity due to its lack of official signatures or stamps and its undiplomatic tone, China has started to show some actions. It sent troops along its border to conduct military training and shut border trade gateways where MNDAA, TNLA, and the United Wa State Army (UWSA) are operating.

Whether this ultimatum is real or not, China’s actions create impacts on the 3BHA’s operations. For example, the MNDAA reduced its hostile actions and began utilizing both Chinese and Myanmar languages in its administration, which it just took over. Similarly, the AA, although capable of ousting the Myanmar military from its areas, has said that it has no plans to expand beyond Arakan State. According to General Twan Mrat Naing, the AA’s commander-in-chief, in a media interview, the AA is capable of driving out the military and extending its area. However, Myanmar expects to return to its attack against its forces at some point. As a result, rather than utilizing military force, we should settle the conflict via political negotiations.

However, the TNLA, with the assistance of the Danu People’s Liberation Army (DPLA) and allied Mandalay People Defense Forces, continues its offensive towards Pyin-Oo Lwin and Mandalay. If the other 3BHA members withdraw their support because of Chinese pressure, the TNLA’s ambitions might be interrupted, perhaps ending the conflict.

The primary motivation behind China’s move from a reactive to a proactive approach in Myanmar is the desire to safeguard its economic interests and prevent the influence of the United States and Western powers.

Therefore, it is obligatory for all of Myanmar’s stakeholders to reconsider the future of our nation and our people. If we continue to be entrapped in a proxy war by these superpowers, we will be entangled in an endless civil conflict, and our people will be the only ones to suffer.