With the fall of the junta’s Lashio North Eastern Command speculations are rife that it could create a domino-effect for the rest 13 military commands which may also eventually fall. Lashio is considered as the third most important military command, after Naypyitaw and Northern commands. But first and foremost, the priority should be on how to fill in the power vacuum created by the Operation 1027 first and second phases, as the silent majority wedged between the warring parties want nothing more than human security and peaceful atmosphere, so that they can at least survive and go on living.
Thus, the question arise who, which party or parties should fill in the power vacuum. It is certain that the junta won’t be part of it, with its tyrannical rule and lack of empathy for the civilian whatsoever, as could be witnessed by its repeated, well-documented gross human rights violations during its more than three years of military coup.
If so, should it be the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) waging war that should oversee the Northern Shan State (NSS) administration? Or better still, should it be the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Council (FPNCC) of which most warring parties in the area are members?
The FPNCC which has seven members altogether is based in Panghsang or Pangkham headed by the United Wa State Party/ Army (UWSP/UWSA). The other six members are Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA), Myanmar National Truth and Justice Party/ Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDJP/MNDAA), Palaung State Liberation Front/ Ta’ang National Liberation Army (PSLF/TNLA), Shan State East Special Region 4 Peace and Solidarity Committee/ National Democratic Alliance Army (PSC/NDAA), Shan State Progress Party/ Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA), United League of Arakan/ Arakan Army (ULA/AA).
While the FPNCC is strictly a political alliance, there are two military alliances as well. One is the Northern Alliance-Burma (NA-B), comprised of AA, KIA, MNDAA and TNLA, but it hasn’t undertaken anything militarily together. The other is the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), made up of AA, MNDAA and TNLA. The AA participated during the first phase of Operation 1027 in NSS but not in the second phase, as it is busy trying to route out the junta’s troops in its home state of Rakhine or Arakan.
With the fall of Lashio North Eastern Command, it is likely other smaller military garrisons within Shan State may also fall.
In such a convoluted, power vacuum situation all over NSS, what the silent majority wants is human security and the atmosphere of peace, over all other concerns. As it won’t be possible to let the TNLA and MNDAA to shoulder the administrative responsibility single handedly or combined together, due to conflict of interest like, territorial ownership dispute, overlapping demographic patterns, overlapping EAOs’ operational areas, an umbrella organization would be needed to overlook and give the population as a whole human security and peaceful co-existence, just like before the recent widespread civil war took place.
And on top of it, the all FPNCC members are directly or indirectly involved in the ongoing civil war. The UWSA, SSPP and NDAA might not be directly involved in fighting the junta but they are now determined to protect the areas they controlled not to be drawn into or become part of the war zone, and are acting accordingly to defend them. For example, the UWSA has occupied Tangyan and has also entered Lashio quite recently with the reason to protect its people and interest. SSPP has also occupied Mongyai, adjacent to Tangyan, shortly after the UWSA for the same reason. The NDAA in the same vein has also entered villages around Mong Yawng in eastern Shan State.
We have also seen armed clashes between the MNDAA and SSPP, TNLA and SSPP, and armed frictions between the KIA and TNLA, KIA and MNDAA and so on, due to territorial ownership and demarcation problems. While these problems are downplayed, they are there which could ignite a broader inter-EAO wars anytime.
At this juncture, it may be wise for all EAOs to curb their urge of territorial expansionism through military might and victory and should rather look at the broader vision of achieving and establishing federal democratic union for the whole country, and act solely to replace the military junta for the sake of the people of Shan State.
Thus it is urged that the redrawing of political map, including decentralization and creation of new constituent units to suit the needs of the all ethnic groups should be left to the to the electorates or local people and the to be formed central federal government, which should be a collective leadership to oversee the whole country. In other words, the EAOs operating within the NSS should be caretaker and part of the administrative body under the FPNCC, with the cooperation and participation of the local peoples in a federal democratic union setting, during this transitional period before holistic political settlement countrywide can be implemented.
In this aspects, we should look at the FPNCC political conviction and position which writes: “Building Peace for all peoples of Myanmar, we are committed to establishing a genuine federal union in which the rights of self-determination, regional autonomy and equality are guaranteed. The aim of the FPNCC is to negotiate and consult with the government of Myanmar in order to resolve the world’s longest ethnic conflict and civil war through a peaceful political means. For the lasting peace, stability, sustainable development and prosperity we want to build a genuine federal democratic union in which political equality, the rights of self-determination of ethnic nationalities and regional autonomy will be legally guaranteed. In short, we are demanding the right to freely determine our political status and freely pursue our economic, social and cultural development in accordance with international laws.”
Last but not least, the FPNCC should make use of the meeting scheduled to be held soon, reportedly on 8th August, in China between the 3BHA and the junta to float the idea of truce, at least in NSS, coupled with the FPNCC proposal to fill in the power vacuum for the transitional period, so that the war-weary population could at least survive in a peaceful co-existence setting, if not for any other reason.
