Will the Junta Succeed in Reopening Northern Shan State’s Trade Networks?

After retaking Nawnghkio (Naungcho), Kyaukme, and Hsipaw (Thibaw) in northern Shan State, the Myanmar military has reopened the Mandalay–Lashio Road, a key trade route that had been closed for nearly two years.

The closure followed Operation 1027, launched on October 27, 2023, during which the Three Brotherhood Alliance—the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Arakan Army (AA)—seized control of major trade routes in northern Shan State, effectively disrupting cross-border trade between China and Myanmar.

According to a motorist who recently used the route, the Mandalay–Lashio road fully reopened on October 18. “Travel from Mandalay to Naungcho, Kyaukme, and Lashio is now possible. But only small passenger cars can use the road. Large cargo trucks still can’t travel,” he told SHAN.

Two key bridges along the road—the Kyinthi Bridge between Kyaukme and Thibaw and the Goketwin Bridge between Naungcho and Kyaukme—remain closed to heavy trucks due to damage from earlier fighting. Repairs have not yet been completed.

Before the conflict, the trip from Mandalay to Lashio took just over four hours. With more than 20 military and police checkpoints now operating along the road, drivers report that the journey can take up to 10 hours due to frequent inspections. A trader from Muse noted that despite the delays, the reopening has eased travel logistics. “Travelers used to take a detour through Taunggyi and had to stay overnight. Now the trip can be done in one day, and it is a bit cheaper,” he said.

Transport fares have decreased since the route reopened. The Mandalay–Muse fare has dropped from 200,000 kyat to 150,000 kyat, while passenger-only services such as Crown and Mark II vehicles have lowered their fare from 500,000 kyat to 450,000 kyat per person. However, the cost of transporting goods has increased significantly. According to traders, the taxes and payments required along the road are now two to three times higher than before. “If the goods aren’t officially declared or taxes haven’t been paid, checkpoints may seize them. So transporting goods ends up costing a lot along the road,” the Muse-based trader explained.

Truck drivers say they are spending between 200,000 and 700,000 kyat per trip just to pass checkpoints, which forces them to carry large amounts of cash on every journey.

With the military back in control of Lashio, traders and logistics operators are closely watching to see whether the junta can reopen all border trade routes in northern Shan State. Lashio functions as a major transit hub, linking Mandalay with key border trading towns such as Muse and Chinshwehaw. A Muse resident familiar with border trade said the junta is currently prioritizing reopening the Mandalay–Lashio–Chinshwehaw route. “We heard the junta will focus on reopening the route to Chinshwehaw first and only later move on to the Mandalay–Muse Road. They are expected to negotiate with the MNDAA so goods can pass through Theinni (Hsenwi), which remains under MNDAA control,” he said.

Control of northern Shan State’s trade gates remains fragmented. In Muse Town, several gates are under military control, while others are controlled either jointly or independently by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and the MNDAA. The military has repeatedly asked China to help it regain full control over cross-border trade routes, which are worth billions of dollars annually. However, China has not agreed to assist. Instead, on January 19, China reopened several border gates controlled by ethnic armed organizations, including the Yanlongkeng and Chinshwehaw gates under the MNDAA and the Namtit gate under the United Wa State Army (UWSA). China also reopened the Kyansangkyawt gate, jointly controlled by the Brotherhood Alliance, allowing the alliance to begin collecting online taxes on vehicles passing through Muse’s 105-Mile trade zone beginning July 1.

Border gates under military control currently allow goods to pass through only in small quantities––items that individuals can carry by hand––rather than full commercial shipments.

Muse remains one of Myanmar’s largest border trading hubs. During the 2022–23 fiscal year, total trade reached 33.924 billion USD, with exports valued at 16.575 billion USD and imports at 17.349 billion USD, according to the junta-controlled Ministry of Commerce.

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