At the end of April, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar military council, military junta or State Administration Council (SAC) met in China in order to find a solution for the ongoing armed conflict brokered by the Chinese. The talks broke down due to the demand of the SAC that TNLA withdraw from all occupied territories back to its Palaung Self-Administered Zone.

According to SHAN report, the TNLA announced that the military council and itself met again in Kunming, due to Chinese intervention, but the talks ended without success.

On April 28-29, a delegation led by Lt. Gen. Tar Jock Ja of the TNLA and a delegation led by Lt. Gen. Ko Ko Oo of the military council met again in Kunming, facilitated by the Chinese.

During the talks, the military council representatives demanded that the TNLA withdraw its troops to Namhsan and Mantong townships in the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, leaving behind the TNLA captured, controlled areas of Nwanghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Mogok and Moemeik or Mongmit, according to a TNLA statement.

The TNLA said that the TNLA could not agree to the military council’s request, and thus the two sides were not able to continue the talks and agreed to meet again in August to work on a possible ceasefire agreement.

The TNLA statement said that bilateral meetings between the military council and the TNLA, facilitated by Chinese Special Representative Mr. Deng Xijun, were aimed at reopening the China-Myanmar border trade route, restore regional stability, and implement a ceasefire similar to that of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang with the military council.

Aftermath of Kunming meeting

After the collapse of talks between the TNLA and the military council, the latter has been bombing the western part of Nawnghkio town controlled by the TNLA.

A local resident said that a local man was killed when a jet fighter bombed the western part of Mogok at 9 am on May 3. “Yesterday, they bombed. This morning, they bombed. A man was beheaded. He was said to be a mason. There were those who were also injured,” a Mogok resident told Shwe Phi Myay.

On the evening of May 2, they bombed the eastern and western parts of Mogok, but no casualties were reported, although some houses were damaged. According to the information received by Shwe Phi Myay at least one person was killed and three others were injured in the bombing in Mogok, and Shwe Phi Myay is still investigating the details.

The military council also bombed Longwei village in Nawnghkio Township in the May 2 evening, which is controlled by the TNLA, but no casualties were reported, according to Shwe Phi Myay report of May 3.

Statement of the TNLA spokesperson

According to Myanmar Now report on May 2, the two-day talks in Kunming, China, failed after the military council demanded that the TNLA withdraw from areas such as Nwanghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw, Mogok, and Moemeik or Mongmit that were occupied by the TNLA during the 1027 Operation.

The TNLA said that further talks were held on April 28 and 29, with the mediation of China, but they ended without reaching an agreement.

“The military council asked us to withdraw from the towns we currently control to the Palaung Self-Administered Zone, Namhsan and Mantong, which were granted in 2008,” said TNLA spokesperson Lwey Ye Oo.

“Since this request was difficult for us to agree upon, the talks ended without any mutual discussion. On the other hand, there is a meeting scheduled for the end of August.”

“The talks have stopped because we could not agree to the military council’s demands. Our side will defend the townships we have captured to the end.”

“It’s more of a Chinese pressure than a military council pressure,” said Lwey Ye Oo.

“The Chinese government shares a border. Our trade is also dependent on the Chinese government. The current Chinese government is continuing its five-cut policy on us. And since they are putting pressure on us, this is a huge challenge for us,” she said.

China’s five-cut policy includes shutting the border crossings, cut of supplies of internet, fuel, electricity, food and essential commodities of the TNLA controlled areas, just like what China has done to the MNDAA, effectively cowing it to submission.

The military council and the TNLA have been negotiating a ceasefire since February 16, 2025, but fighting on the ground is still intense.

“Although we have declared a unilateral ceasefire, the military council is continuing its offensive (in Nwanghkio). … So far, we have not seen any cases of our side surrendering their bases. We have not launched any offensives,” Lwey Ye Oo added.

“We can completely control both Nwanghkio Town and the surrounding villages.”

What is China’s real motive and conviction?

Outwardly, it might look like that it is only just the demand of the SAC. But the reality is China is behind the whole scenario, as we could already see how the MNDAA or Kokang has been pressured to relinquish Lashio City and let the SAC took it back, without firing a shot, with just sheer soft power pressure.

It is true that the SAC only administers Lashio City and the surroundings are encircled by MNDAA troops. But China has its own reason for such setup, which is to soothe MNDAA for the time being as if it still has some say in running northern Shan State, and at the same time using it as a check-and-balance tool vis-à-vis the SAC movement. And in the same vein, letting SAC monitoring the MNDAA at the same time, that it caters to the Chinese prescription and not deviating from it.

A liaison Chinese office or trade office is said to be in the pipeline according to the locals, even though confirmation from the Chinese still has to be made public. But it is clear that it will monitor all parties involved that they act according to the Chinese prescription, with the sole ambition to reopen the cross-border trade routes between Myanmar and China, leading to peaceful atmosphere in northern Shan State and beyond, to be able to conduct trade, realization of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and so on.

Thus, it isn’t a wonder that TNLA is pressured to fall in line so that the trading routes could be reopened.

Understandably, TNLA has been on the receiving end of Chinese pressure in a variety of ways as it’s spokesperson has told the media recently.

In sum, China is committed to support SAC’s planned elections at the end of the year; help it to restore back its authority first in northern Shan State, with the intention to cap the Bamar uprising in Dry Zone of Sagaing, Mandalay and so on; and perhaps gearing to limit the ambition of AA in a variety of ways.

Analysis

It is hard to say if the junta is on its way to launch a full scale counteroffensive nationwide. But it seems it is heightening up its ground troops involvement in part of Kachin State and Karenni, southern Shan State border area, according to the recent news.

While massive ground force deployment nationwide may seems impossible for now, it definitely still has a lot of fire powers and air force, which the anti-junta forces are ill-equipped to counter effectively. This means, it will still be around with the help of China and to a lesser extend the Russian.

Given such reality on the ground, it seems the junta will continue to use its airstrikes and drones on captured territories as a means of pressure. At the same time, it will be using China to pressure the TNLA to withdraw back from their seized territories and let the junta rule again like in Lashio, which the MNDAA has to give up.

In other words, it will be forced to surrender and go back to the situation before the Operation 1027, according to the SAC junta’s liking, with the backing of China.

There’s no doubt that China wants SAC to be the one in charge and it is openly doing everything to reach that goal. National Unity Government (NUG) and the ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) have been telling China that they are not against China’s interest. But since China’s mind is made up, the anti-junta ethnic-democratic forces may have to reassess their “do or die posture” and ponder on how to go about the political waters in such a precarious situation.

To put it differently, China’s pressure on TNLA isn’t just directed at it solely, but to all the anti-junta ethnic-resistance, democratic alliance, to toe its prescribed way of thinking, which is none other than to fall in line with accepting the junta as supreme leader running the country and make adjustment accordingly. An absurd proposition by all means but unfortunately a stark reality facing the people of Burma or Myanmar.