During the second week of July two episodes made headlines that would have an effect on the conflict dynamics in northern Shan State .

On July 11, United Wa State Army (UWSA) deployed more than 2,000 troops to Tangyan, a city 135km south of the embattled Lashio, the second largest city in Shan State, after Taunggyi the capital. Accordingly, the UWSA has made a deal with the military junta to allow its deployment for the protection of the town’s residents, which was demanded by the town’s population. Many of the town’s resident members served with the UWSA and thus have relative residing in Tangyan.

UWSA Spokesman Nyi Rang told the media that the deployment is a preventive measure to stop the conflict in northern Shan State from spreading to Tangyan. He also stressed that his organization maintain neutrality and reject conflict saying, “We want peace and stability in Tangyan and believe our deployment will be constructive in every aspect, ” according to Mizzima recent report.

In the early morning of July 13 at 5 am., Shan State Progress Party (SSPP) moved more than a thousand troops to Mongyai city and its surroundings and secure the area, according to the locals, reported SHAN news on July 13.

“More than 200 soldiers entered the city in the morning. Around town with soldiers deployed there are more than a thousand troopers altogether. All the places along the main road have been occupied. The military council force at Hsaung Kye was also ordered to leave. The fate of its troops within the city are still unknown,” said a local male of Mongyai to SHAN.

Regarding the issue, the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) Spokesperson Secretary (2) Colonel Sai Hsu explained as follows: “This area is our dominated area. That’s why in order to protect it from being taken over by other organizations and to continue to be under the rule of the Shan State Army we’ve to undertake as we’ve done now. The people are also asking us to protect them,” according to the SSPP Info on its Facebook on July 13.

The Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 325, LIB 67 and LIB 22 are all based in Mongyai township.

In an exclusive interview with the BBC on July 13, Colonel Sai Hsu stressed the following to clarify SSPP’s positions to dispel various allegations by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

“It is baseless accusation that we made compromise with the military council by transporting and rescuing its troops. We haven’t done anything (as accused).”

“On the outskirts of Kyaukme, there are camps where the military council troops have abandoned. We occupy them (on our own initiatives), not because the military council asked us to do so. If any of those camps in our area are free, we will occupy them, if they are strategically important . This is military matters. Allegations like that we’re exploiting the situation and all are nonsense.”

“The reason we don’t want to be part of the war is because our positions are different from one another. Among our 7-member alliance [(of Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Council (FPNCC)], we National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), UWSA and SSPP have signed the bilateral union-level and state-level ceasefires and have the same position.”

Regarding the question of if SSPP may expand its protective shield besides Mongyai to other areas in Shan State, Sai Hsu said this will have to be tackled step-by-step, depending on the situation and feasibility.

In this connection in order to protect the citizens, Sai Hsu said it is advisable that the military junta withdraw from areas that are prone to be attacked by the TNLA and MNDAA and hand over the military positions to them (SSPP & UWSA), which may discourage the two anti-junta alliance leading the second phase Operation 2027 in northern Shan State from attacking.

He moreover emphasized that his organization isn’t for or against the Operation 2027 and strictly neutral. Its main concern is to protect the citizen of Shan State and see that the war doesn’t spread into SSPP operational and controlled areas.

Moreover, he was said to be irked with the assumption that if one of the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) is able to push out the military junta, the place belongs to it; and even go about chasing the EAO residing the area for a long time. This was what happened to the SSPP when the TNLA forcefully transported its soldiers from Namkham area not long ago. TNLA didn’t even respect the SSPP and the majority Shan people residing in the area, he said. Thus action like occupying Mongyai happened to protect the people and SSPP’s jurisdiction.

Outlook

Thus, we can see that the 7-member FPNCC it can be divided into two categories. The UWSA, SSPP and Mongla or National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) which are not anti-junta but neutral, not joining either the Spring Revolution or Operation 1027 and ready to cut a deal with whoever wield real political power at the center. In contrast, the other group is made up of Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army (AA), Kokang or Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and TNLA that are strictly anti-junta and seeking to uproot the military junta before any political settlement can be worked out.

However even in anti-junta group, KIA doesn’t cooperate with the Operation 1027 but only works with the National Unity Government’s (NUG) People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) militarily in Sagaing Magwe and Mandalay divisions, supporting the Spring Revolution.

And in the second phase of Operation 1027, the AA isn’t too visible militarily in northern Shan State like during the first phase, probably because it has to fight an all-out war against the junta at home in Arakan (Rakhine) State. Moreover, the TNLA concentrate more on Nwanghkio and Mandalay Division, whereas the MNDAA is putting its lot on Lashio offensive. However, it is not sure if the two will fight together as one in Lashio front.

Many observers now said that the TNLA and MNDAA are more concerned for territorial expansion for their individual group benefit and recognition of a higher administrative level, like a separate ethnic state carved out of Shan State, with more territories incorporated within the reformed union, if the junta is uprooted. It is also not clear if the two have the ambition to really assist physically and have the capacity to penetrate into the heartland Burma or Dry Zone to unseat the junta together with the Bamar revolutionary groups.

On top of that the SSPP has said that it may look into the matter of protecting Shan majority population like in Kyaukme and Hsipaw and so on in the aftermath of its Mongyai occupation, which would create loggerheads situation between the SSPP and TNLA. The ongoing meeting now between the two in Panghsang brokered by the UWSA may or may not resolve the territorial dispute, which we may have to wait and see on how the situation will pan out.

For now, in northern Shan State the move of SSPP and UWSA may have given the junta a breathing space and concentrate on the defense of Lashio. It is also not sure, how long the MNDAA can hold out encircling Lashio, with its capital Laukkai being bombarded from the air quite recently by the junta on July 14, which destroyed hotels and other buildings, but no human casualty has been reported. Meanwhile, MNDAA hastily announced unilateral ceasefire of four days on the same day, although fighting was said to be still raging, according to the news.

In sum, the changing conflict pattern will also change the power dynamics, which probably won’t stop the ethnic rivalry and will prolong the ongoing civil war than ending it anytime soon.