Despite the rising momentum of revolutionary armed organizations opposing Myanmar’s military junta, the two Shan armies have remained quiet.

The Shan armies’ silence stems from their belief that the conflicts since the February 2021 coup have primarily concerned the Barman people and the Myanmar Tatmadaw, who have been fighting for power to control this country. Thus, they feel that the military junta will eventually win as in the past. Therefore, they decided to distance themselves from the matter.

The second factor that led to the Shan forces’ neutrality was their determination to avoid becoming puppets for any particular group. As they wanted to retain their autonomy, they would only concentrate on their own objectives, such as developing their military forces, reaping economic gains, and keeping positive ties with their allies.

The Shan forces have made it plain that they are unwilling to take part in the Spring Revolution. However, they continue to have internal territorial issues. This split has led to widespread boredom and unwillingness among the Shan people to support either group, as they are forced to take sides.

While the Shan forces remain divided and preoccupied with internal disputes, other armed groups have taken advantage of the opportunity to extend their territory and develop their own administrative systems. The Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), along with the People Defense Forces (PDFs), has made significant gains in northern Shan State. For instance, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) have set up their own administrations in the territories they control.

Other ethnic armed groups (EAOs), such as the Arakan Army (AA), Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and Chin National Front (CNF), have made territorial advances and are pursuing independent governance. PDF groups in Sagiang, Mandalay, Magwe, Tharnintharyi, and Ayarwaddy are developing their own local governing systems.

Again, in Shan State, the TNLA and MNDAA have taken control of a significant part of the northern region, while the United Wa State Army (UWSA) has extended its territory along the western bank of the Salween River and intends to form Wa state. The Pa-Oh group is also extending its authority by establishing a Pa-Oh administrative division in the southern region. So, the developments that are taking place coupled with the denial of military-led elections in these areas, would inevitably put Shan State at risk of fragmentation.

Thus, the Shan must take this as a serious matter. This is not a pessimistic attitude; rather, it is an apparent reality.