According to representatives of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) who were attending meetings in Chiangmai last week, prior to the meeting with the government today in preparation for the upcoming Union Peace Conference (UPD) #2, also dubbed the 21^st Century Panglong, the planned gathering in Naypyitaw on 31 August will be a “grand opening,” but no big debates on “substance” are on the radar.

One participant reported to the Peace Process Steering Team (PPST), made up of top leaders from the 8 signatory EAOs, that he had met a senior officer from the Inter Mediate, a UK based charity said to be working with the State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

“In response to my protest that the conference was coming up too fast and furious for the EAOs, especially for the non signatories, to have time to prepare, let alone consult with the government, she told me not to worry,” he said. “As the conference would be attended by several foreign dignitaries, particularly the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, its priority would just be the grand opening, with little on substance. Accordingly, great speeches and sweeping statements are expected. It may also open the doors for political dialogues at state, region and ethnic levels, in the run up to the next conference. But that’ll be all.”

So who’s getting anything out of it?

“According to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), political dialogue was to begin 90 days after its signing,” explained a participant who was one of the negotiators for the document which was signed on 15 October. “However, government representatives requested that we should go around the third step of the roadmap: (Political Dialogue) to do the 4^th step (Holding the Union Peace Conference) #1 instead. Afterward, we could then return to the 3^rd step. Anyway the 3^rd and 4^th steps would continuously alternate until the Pyidaungsu (Union) Accord is signed. So why don’t we give something for (the outgoing) President to remember for what he had worked so hard? they said.

“So in the end, we held the UPC#1 for the glory of President Thein Sein, “he concluded rhetorically. “Now for whose glory will we again be holding the UPC#2 or, if one prefers, the 21^st Century Panglong?”

The State Counselor is scheduled to visit the United States next month to meet President Obama as well as deliver an address at the UN General Assembly.

Meanwhile, the Inter Mediate, headed by ex UK Prime Minister Tony Blair’s former Chief of Staff, Jonathan Powell, is said to have effectively replaced the former government’s Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) as its technical support body, according to one informed source.

“Not only the MPC has been supplanted,” he said, “so are the Union Peacemaking Central Committee (UPCC) and the Union Peacemaking  Work Committee (UPWC). Now we have, in their place, the National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) and the Peace Commission (PC).”

The UPCC was the policymaking body chaired by President Thein Sein, and the UPWC the implementing body chaired by Vice President Sai Mawk Kham.

The Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC), made up of representatives from the government, EAOs and political parties, is meeting in Naypyitaw today to discuss preparations for the 21^st Century Panglong.