Most readers may already be familiar with the seven step political roadmap as outlined in the 20 page draft Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) which is expected to be signed early in September, granted everything goes according to the latest revised plan:
- Signing of NCA
- Drafting and reaching agreement on the framework for political dialogue (FPD)
- Launching of political dialogue (PD)
- Holding of Union Peace Convention
- Signing of Union Accord
- Ratification by the Union Assembly
- Implementation of the Union Accord
Accordingly, the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) top leaders are scheduled to meet the President and the Commander-in-Chief of the Tatmadaw on 25 August in Naypyitaw for a make-or-break rendezvous. By that day, at least two burning questions will already have been answered:
- How many EAOs are going to sign the NCA
- The date for the signing ceremony
Many outsiders, and even some insiders, may think the next step is of course the drafting and agreement on the FPD, for which a series of informal consultations has already been held since May.
What will really happen however is the following:
- Within 24 hours, military forces on both sides will be informed of the signing of the NCA, and an order for cessation of hostilities issued
- Within 5 days, the NCA will be explained to the military forces on both sides in detail, especially Chapter 3: Ceasefire related matters and Chapter 4: Maintaining and strengthening ceasefire agreements
- Within 2 weeks the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM) will be held between the two sides to form the Union level Joint Ceasefire Committee (JMC) and Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC)
- The JMC will then work out a draft military code of conduct (COC) and a draft Terms of Reference (TOR) for the JICM to deliberate and approve within 30 days (after the NCA signing)
- As for the UPDJC, its first and foremost job is to draft the FPD and submit it to the JICM for approval within 60 days (after the NCA signing)
- This will be followed by the launching of the PD within 90 days (after the NCA signing) by the UPDJC
Indeed, once the NCA is signed, there will be no holidays for whoever is involved until the end of the year and whatever is happening (for example, elections) in the rest of the country.
But since we can eat the apple only one bite at a time, the first thing is to see what the EAOs are going to decide during the next three days, 21-23 August, prior to their meeting with the President and the Commander-in-Chief. The undying hope is that it has good news for the people, many of whom think they have already waited long enough.
