Peace talks between the Myanmar junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) held in Kunming, China, on 15 December 2024, ended in failure with no agreement reached.

At the Chinese mediated talks the junta demanded that the MNDAA withdraw its troops from Lashio Town in northern Shan State, which is under MNDAA control. It also demanded that the MNDAA release all prisoners of war, including captured junta commanders, and that it reopens the border crossings to China in the towns of Lashio, Kunlong, and Chinshwehaw.

The MNDAA rejected the junta’s demands to withdraw from Lashio Town and demanded that it instead makes Lashio Township an autonomous area under MNDAA control and designates it as Special Region 1.

According to political analyst U Than Soe Naing, a China-Myanmar expert and former member of the Communist Party of Burma, any further talks between the MNDAA and the junta are very unlikely to succeed as both sides’ demands are unacceptable to the other side.

He said to SHAN: “The MNDAA has invested a great deal of sweat and blood to take control of Lashio Town. The junta’s demands for its withdrawal is very childish and, put simply, it won’t work. A meaningful compromise needs to be proposed. What I see now is the junta claiming to pursue peace talks and resolve disputes through political means, but in reality, it is solely focused on reclaiming the territories it has lost. With this approach, these negotiations are destined to fail. That’s my opinion.”

According to reports, China is also privately putting pressure on the MNDAA to withdraw from Lashio Town.

He also pointed out that whenever talks collapse, the junta often resorts to airstrikes and other acts of aggression and that China has consistently sided with the junta and never condemned such retaliatory actions. He believes that such behaviour by both the junta and the Chinese has also played a role in the failure of the talks.

After the failure of the 15 December peace talks the junta launched airstrikes against the MNDAA controlled town of Theinni (Hsenwi) in northern Shan State, on 1 January 2025.

A Lashio Town resident said that the junta’s practice of launching airstrikes whenever talks fail has left Lashio Town residents living in constant fear and anxiety.

She said: “The aircraft that bombed Theinni on New Year’s Day flew low over Lashio Town on its way back at around 11:00 pm, possibly close to midnight. The residents couldn’t sleep because they were scared after having heard the sound of loud jet engines close by. The constant worrying about when aircraft would arrive to bomb us was overwhelming, and everyone was terrified.”

The junta and the MNDAA are scheduled to hold another round of talks in January 2025.