On March 23, Arakan Army (AA) released battle news report covering the period from March 16 to 23. In its summary, it reported that 120 Tatmadaw troops were killed in action according to the witness of its soldiers. The report further alleged that because of the Tatmadaw’s high causality figures in clashes with the AA and overrunning of the Tatmadaw’s temporary strategic hill  on March 9 near Pyan So village in Paletwa’s Pee Chaung area, it unleashed attacks on civilian population in Mrauk U town on March 15 and Si Taung village, Buthitaung township, on March 21, killing 7, wounding some 20 or more. It accused the Tatmadaw of launching fake battles to punish the population and also looting livestock and valuables, which amounted to crime against humanity.

However, Tatmadaw’s spokesperson rejected the allegations and said that the civilian causalities happened because of firefights with the AA, which have mingled with the local population and attacking the government troops. He argued the incidence could be either because of the Tatmadaw’s firing or those coming from the AA.

The report also pointed out the arrest of many villagers, using various paragraphs like unlawful association with illegal organizations, torturing, forced sun-bathing under the hot sun, killing and destroying the corpses.

Min Aung Hlaing

On March 18, just before the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement–Non-Ssigatory-Ethnic Armed Organizations (NCA-NS-EAO) were about to meet on March 21 and 22, commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing commented in his reply to a media question over ongoing fighting with AA on the sidelines of Combined Fleet Exercise-Sea Shield 2019 of Myanmar’s Navy near Coco Island, which he was attending.

“Any armed insurgent must be wiped out if they surface. If they want to go for peace without holding arms, we have to act in a peaceful manner,” said the commander-in-chief, according to the Eleven Media report of March 19.

Tin Myo Win

And during recent Naypyitaw meeting between the NCA-NS-EAO and the government’s National Reconciliation and Peace Center (NRPC) on March 21, its vice-chairman Tin Myo Win said: “Conflicts in Rakhine state are not about accepting or not accepting an ethnic armed group,” adding that the state is a “white area,”  which is administered by the government and not a gray territory that is under conflict.

“Trying to establish a foothold in the white area is a threat to the peace and security of the country,” he said. “The government will take necessary action to maintain security. All parties need to understand that,” according to the Radio Free Asia March 21 report.

Colonel Kyaw Han

But AA secretary Colonel Kyaw Han, representative of the AA wouldn’t agree to Tin Myo Win’s argument saying: “In our view, the military doesn’t accept the presence of the Arakan Army in Rakhine (Arakan) state. But for us Rakhine people, the presence of the Arakan Army is the main goal of [the AA’s political wing] the United League of Arakan.”

“We are doing the right thing since we believe that only the Arakan Army will able to take care of the security and development of Rakhine state,” he said. “We are actually doing it now in Rakhine state.”

Dr Aye Maung

On March 19 Sittwe District Court sentenced the two ethnic Rakhine men, the prominent lawmaker Dr Aye Maung and author Wai Hin Aung, to 20 years for high treason under section 122 of the Penal Code and two years for incitement under section 505(b) of the Penal Code.  Both were slapped with imprisonment for the speeches given at a public event in Rakhine State early last year.

At a public event in Rathedaung township Aye Maung reportedly accused the Bamar-dominated National League for Democracy government of treating the Rakhine people like “slaves”. The speech came shortly on January 16 last year on which nine people were killed in violent clashes between police and Rakhine protesters in Mrauk U, the former capital of the Rakhine kingdom.

Raising flags

On March 16, border security minister Colonel Phone Tint on behalf of the Arakan state chief minister issued a directive to the police and district administrators to warn the house owners not to host Arakan flags, as it is against paragraph 121 and could face punishment, including securing signatures that they won’t do it again in the future, reported Eleven Media on March 22.

In the directive, it said 7 houses in Mrauk U’s  Aung quarter; 20 in Lawgamu quarter; 2 in Taung Gok township, Sarpyin village have hosted Arakan flags on March 3.

Perspectives

Given such political scenarios, the carrot and stick offer by NRPC and Tatmadaw without a comprehensive wise road map is the prevailing present situation, although the overtones seems to be more of total eviction and annihilation of the AA by all means from the Arakan state.

While the meeting on March 21 is hailed by presidential office spokesman Zaw Htay as a rare achievement, in principle the joint-statement of NS-EAO and the NRPC includes just general agreement which can either be take it or leave it, so to speak. They are: continued coordination to reduce armed conflicts; efforts to maintain stability and peace; regional development for the benefit of the people in the region; to solve political problems through political means; and to continue holding frequent meetings with participation of the decision makers.

All in all, if the aim of the government is rapprochement with the NS-EAO it has to be taken as not successful, as the three members Northern Alliance-Burma (NA-B) – AA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) or Kokang – declared in a statement on March 19 that they will stand by the AA in the ongoing conflict with the Tatmadaw in Arakan state.

Although Kachin Independence Army (KIA) is also the NA-B member, it didn’t signed the March 19 statement, due to its deliberation in trying to settle back its Internally Displace Persons and possible bilateral ceasefire which it has rejected from 2011 until today.  It now seems to entertain bilateral ceasefire first and continued negotiation to sign NCA, just like the position taken now by the Karenni People Progressive Party (KNPP), according to the Voice of America recent report.

This means, the whole Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC) – made up of 7 NCA-NS-EAO – will have no choice but to place itself behind the NA-B, which in turn can be interpreted as there will be no deal with the government-military regime in Naypyitaw. Thus, all parties are back to square one in reality.

So far as NCA-NS-EAO is concerned the military ceasefire affairs will be taken care of NA-B, which is in ongoing conflict with the Tatmadaw, while the FPNCC will be tasked with political negotiation for the whole group of all 7 members.

The FPNCC is made up of NA-B and United Wa State Army (UWSA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) or Mong La and Shan State Progress Party (SSPP).

If this is so, with the near-dead NCA-based peace process due to the two biggest NCA-signatory EAOs’ suspension to take part since last November as they said it is unfair and also misinterpreting the NCA aspirations, the future of national reconciliation and federalization of the country are likely to be pushed further away from actual realization anytime soon. This clearly is because of the Tatmadaw’s mismanagement and unwise policy implementation vis a vis the AA and Arakanese people, which are disappointingly endorsed also by the NLD government.