The National League for Democracy (NLD) regime is overwhelmed by the international negative opinion onslaught on Rohingya crisis and as well the peace process stagnation, which is threatening to become a failed peace process.
US Ambassador Scott Marciel said in his interview with the BBC on March 2 that what has happened in Rakhine State with the Rohingya is definitely ethnic cleansing and the Myanmar government is responsible and must bear responsibility for the outcome.
He added that while Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) attacks on government security forces must be condemned, shouldn’t be sympathetic and also didn’t endorse them, the response of government’s offensives are disproportionate and must be considered as ethnic cleansing which have been well documented for the usage of excessive force and human rights violations.
State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi who is faced with peace process stagnation is also at a loss, as the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), the highest organ directing the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA)-based negotiation mechanism isn’t working, with the Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS) and Karen National Union (KNU) top leaders not attending the meeting. The absence of the two leaders irked the State Counselor so much that she complaint about it openly during the 7th JICM on February 28, which was also echoed by General Soe Win, the Tatmadaw’s top negotiator in the peace process.
Suu Kyi on question of whether the government is mediating between the Tatmadaw and the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) said: “Even though the government continues to mediate there is a problem of not listening (to the government). That is why it is important that the top leaders should attend this kind of meeting in order to reach understanding,” according to the VOA report of March 1.
While Suu Kyi put up a brave face and was able to name a tentative agree to hold the third 21st Century Panglong Conference in early May, which has been postponed twice since January, her frustration could be seen when she said that she is willing to be a go-between of the EAOs and the Myanmar Army, a very doubtful mediator role as she has always weigh in on the side of Tatmadaw’s controversial decisions when there were disagreement between the Myanmar Army and the NCA-signatory or non-signatory EAOs.
For example when disagreement arose between the RCSS a signatory EAO and the Myanmar Army on national-level political dialogue (NPD) or public consultation in Shan State, the government of Shan State revoked its previous endorsement, possibly with the green light of the central NLD government, to give full support to the planned NPD.
Again, regarding the non-signatory EAOs the NLD government continues to toe the line of previous Thein Sein government where rejection of all-inclusiveness EAOs’ participation in the peace process is concerned, effectively leaving out the Northern Alliance armed members of Kokang, Ta’ang and Arakan.
Thein Sein once tried to issue directive to the Myanmar Army to stop attacking the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), so that the peace process could advance and trust-building could follow. But it just ignored the order and waged offensive wars giving the usual pretext to defend territorial integrity of the country.
Besides, a position of non-interference in military matters is followed by the NLD government, especially where offensives on the EAOs in the name of national unity, protecting sovereignty and natural resources extraction are concerned, when in fact it would be more appropriate to resolve all these politically as the EAOs are waging a resistance war as they don’t agree to the government’s sole monopoly in political decision-making and are demanding a shared-sovereignty and shared-natural-resources arrangement.
The signing of NCA by the two new EAOs is deliberately portrayed as a success and a step forward, but it doesn’t seem to be really making a progress in a substantive manner, so long as the two strongest signatory EAOs’ top leaders resort to boycotting of the JICM.
The Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) meeting prior to the 7th JICM has sought to work out two options, on which the details are not made public, for the RCSS to convene the Shan State public consultation meetings and are awaiting answers, according to Zaw Htay the government’s spokesman.
Meanwhile, as if to make the peace negotiation process more complicated and harder the KNU and the new NCA-signatory New Mon State Party (NMSP) fought each other around Phayar-Taung, which is in the east of Ah-le-sa-khan Village in Yebyu Township, due to territorial trespassing of each other.
For now, it is not clear on how the government would try to counter the negative international opinion, coupled with targeted sanctions on a former Commander of the Tatmadaw for Rakine State in his reckless handling of the Rohingya crisis and 100 British MPs suggesting their parliament to take Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, threatening to get worse, particularly in trying to shed its stigma of crime against humanity. And domestically it is facing the challenge on how to empower, jump-start the peace process stagnation which is crucial for the peaceful coexistence among warring parties, with political settlement and development of this deeply divided society.
