It is an illusion to speculate that the Tatmadaw might be split in trying to achieve peace within the country.

The military is “a state within a state” and it has always make its own policies and executed them the way it sees fit. And the offensives in Shan, Kachin and Karen states are coming from the military central command.

The ethnic armies have made a point, when they said that they were not intruding into the Burmese heartland and that it is the Tatmadaw that is encroaching and occupying their homelands militarily, while they were just protecting their people and interest.

If the military really has the “political will”, it could easily declare unilateral ceasefire, drawback a few kilometers from the front-line, or better still, withdraw back its troops to the mother units.

But what it is now doing is unleashing massive offensives to overrun the KIA positions either to have a strategic edge militarily or pressuring the Kachin to give up resistance and signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which still needs to be amended to be comprehensive and fair according to the UNFC.

KIO/KIA is a leading member of the UNFC, which is made up of 9 ethnic armies alliance.

Until and unless the military is committed to become an equal negotiating partner like the rest of the stakeholders, and not posturing itself as a top-dog imposing its preconceived notion of “negotiated surrender” or “surrendered peace”, at the expense of the ethnic armed organizations, there is little hope to end the conflict, much less a negotiated settlement.

Link to the article: A year on from the NCA: what hope for peace?