Dr Hannes Siebert who has been involved in several peace process around the globe including Burma/Myanmar told listeners at the Chiangmai University last year that what was taking place at that time, that is, the negotiations between the government-established Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) and the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs)’ Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team(NCCT) could be compared to a long honeymoon. That the real work would come after it.
He was right. The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) draft was ‘successfully’ finalized on 31 March after 17 months of negotiations. But it still awaits official endorsement both by the government and each of the EAOs. The latter is also planning to hold a Summit among themselves to make the final decision before inking it.
Moreover, the signing ceremony, to be witnessed by the UN,ASEAN, China and other foreign powers doesn’t necessarily mean there will be instant peace in the country although the signing will be taking a major step forward in that direction.
According to the finalized draft, a 7step roadmap to peace has been agreed:
1. Signing of the NCA
2. Negotiations and agreement on the Framework for Political Dialogue within 60 days after the NCA signing (Negotiations on Code of Conduct and Joint Monitoring Mechanism to be completed within 30 days)
3. Launching of the Political Dialogue within 90 days after the NCA signing
4. Convening of Union Peace Conference
5. Signing of Union Peace Accord (UPA)
6. Submission to the Union Assembly for approval
7. Implementation of the UPA
Clearly both sides have their work cut out for them, especially due to the pressing time factor. The elections are going to be held in November. Two months before it would be prioritized on the poll campaigns by the contesting parties. There are only 5 months, counting April to complete the first three steps if the process is to be assured of continuation after the elections and a new Union Assembly and new government are installed, according to one informed observer:
April- May Signing of NCA
June- July Agreement secured on the Framework
August Launching of the political dialogue which will include setting up of work committees for each dialogue topics to be discussed after March 2016
” Could they be accomplished before September 2015? is a big question,” said the observer. “If not, there is understandable concern that all that has been done the past 4 years might be wasted.”
One sticky problem is the government might not agree to the EAOs’ demand that groups that remain unrecognized by the government be permitted to sign the NCA thus preventing them becoming spoilers. They are Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA),Arakan Army(AA),Arakan National Council(ANC), Lahu Democratic Union(LDU) and Wa National Organization(WNO), among others.
Some of the clauses might also be demanded by other stakeholders for amendment, such as 20b. that government and EAO representatives will draft and conclude agreement on the Framework for Political Dialogue.
Meanwhile the NCA is not without positive features. “There are at least 3 guarantees : Federalism, Exemption from Unlawful Associations Act, and Political Dialogue,” said U Aung Min, the government’s principal negotiator. “What more do we need at this stage?”
Maybe he’s right. Maybe he’s not. What about the NCA? Will it be observed by both parties?
What will happen if one side fails to abide by it?
