Saturday, June 22, 2024

As Military Junta Weakens, Who Could Potentially Fill Power Vacuum?

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The ethnic revolutionary organizations (EROs) have the potential to dismantle the oppressive dictatorial military system if they can achieve unity.

Currently, the military regime is in a vulnerable position, facing widespread offensives throughout the country. In the north, the Kachin Independence Army and the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA) have launched significant offensives and expanded their territories. Similarly, in the east, the Karenni Army (KA) and the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) have captured substantial areas, and in the west, the Arakan Army (AA) and Chin National Front (CNF) have taken control of most regions in their respective states.

Additionally, the military regime is experiencing severe economic dysfunction due to the lack of administrative management and skills among its military personnel. Border trades have halted as the EROs have captured most of the border trade routes and towns. Moreover, the international community has imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s military leaders, further damaging the country’s economy. Consequently, commodity prices have skyrocketed, leading to widespread suffering among the population.

Despite the military junta’s weaknesses, the EROs are unable to overthrow the regime due to their inability to unite. For instance, while the National Unity Government has cooperated with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), it has failed to collaborate with members of the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC), led by the United Wa State Army (UWSA). Meanwhile, members of the 3HBA have their own interests in fighting the military, and the People Defense Forces (PDFs) not only struggle to unite but also engage in conflicts with each other. The situation has deteriorated as each group has shifted from the political goal of ousting the military regime and establishing a federal democratic union to narrow ethnonationalism, leading to inter-ethnic tensions and conflicts.

The situation is further complicated by the Shan armies, which do not engage in combat against the military junta but instead fight among themselves. Given these circumstances, it is evident that the Myanmar military remains resilient and, with support from China, may eventually regain control.

However, a crucial question for the Shan armies is: if the EROs manage to defeat the military regime, what will be their position? Will they be able to assert their rights as leaders of Shan State?
My point is that to fill the power vacuum desired and recognized by the international community, all stakeholders must unify to represent the entire nation effectively.

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