First there was the unpleasant news of bombing of Yoma Bank, also affecting nearby Aya Bank,
in northern Shan State capital Lashio, where 2 employees of the bank died and 21 were wounded. Then on February 24, only three days later three bombs exploded in Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine or Arakan State, but luckily only a policeman was slightly wounded.
The Lashio bombing culprit was said to be the ethnic armed organizations, particularly members of the Northern Alliance-Burma (NA-B), by the Tatmadaw although it still is under investigation on which groups are involved, according to its news outlet. The blame, however, has been rejected by both the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Kachin Independence Organization/Army (KIO/KIA).
The TNLA spokesman Mai Aik Kyaw rejected the accusation saying: “We don’t have this kind of policy and we haven’t done it. (Besides) the place that happened is a tightly secured area and no group could enter it,” according to the report of Mizzima on February 22.
On February 23, the State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi condemned the perpetrators for targeting the innocent civilians and conveyed her sorrow and grief to the affected victims and their relatives.
Regarding the Sittwe bombing, the governmental and the Tatmadaw officials haven’t taken up a stance so far, as concrete evidence are still lacking, although speculation are rife that it could either be the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) or the Arakan Army (AA).
The speculation of the culprit in Lashio incidence vary from disgruntled narcotics trafficking groups like Myanmar military commanded Pyithu Sit (People’s Militia), staging a sort of vendetta for cracking down on them and confiscated their goods not long ago by the security apparatus, to NA-B, which wanted to teach the Bank a lesson for not paying protection money or taxes.
Regardless of who could be the culprits of the bombings in Lashio and Sittwe, the common situation in Shan and Rakhine States is that they are within the operational areas of the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in general. And it is also a generally accepted knowledge or understanding that the Tatmadaw employs a strategy and policy of either out right total subjugation or negotiated surrender of all the EAOs, even though it is taking part in the nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA)-based peace process negotiations.
And from this outgoing point, the Tatmadaw is doing everything by escalating the armed conflict in Kachin, Shan, Chin and Rakhine States to wipe out the EAOs from their staging ground, deprived them of revenue from natural sources, conquered more territories, all the while when peace negotiation is still ongoing, and trying to push them into the corner militarily.
The indication of such moves could be seen when the KIO/KIA leader Gen N’Ban La met Tatmadaw’s Lt-Gen Tun Tun Naung in Kunming brokered by the Chinese special envoy for Asian Affairs, to discuss on how to deescalate the conflict and achieve peace between the two warring parties.
It was the first meeting as such where the KIO side brought up issues of regional stability, armed conflict reduction, peace and federal union building, in line with pledges from the Panglong Agreement of 1947.
During the meeting Tatmadaw demanded a retreat of KIA bases from the current front line, including the headquarters of No. 14 Battalion and said they cannot approve some KIA Divisions.
And while the two adversaries have made public that they are interested in another follow up meeting, the actual meeting atmosphere was said to be anything but cordial. Insider sources said it was nothing less than ultimatum from the Tatmadaw that the KIA should withdraw or else face further military onslaught, to which N’Ban La replied somewhat like: “If the Tatmadaw will be going after the KIA in the jungles, they might as well appear in the cities.”
Because of prior such development, it is highly possible that the NA-B could be testing the water if such urban guerrilla tactics are employed how would the people react to it, given that collateral damage could hardly be avoided.
For now regarding the Lashio incidence, TNLA and KIA have denied that they are not involved and the government and Tatmadaw could hardly prove that they were the bombers. Likewise, the Sittwe bombing could not also be blamed on either AA or ARSA for sure.
But there is a high possibility that the embattled EAOs reeling under the Tatmadaw’s military onslaught might be thinking of a change of tactics by resorting to urban guerrilla warfare to upset the Tatmadaw’s military advantage of using newly acquired heavy artillery and air power.
And if this is going to be the case, it is the people that will suffer most as usual and the country will slide further into the middle-east or Afghanistan type of conflict, which will serve no one’s interest.
It is high time the Tatmadaw abandons its total elimination, subjugation or negotiated surrender, line of approach and embrace all-inclusiveness participation of the EAOs and resolve political problems through political means.
