Day Six. Saturday, 15 October 2016

Not by violence is violence ended

Violence is ended by non-violence.

A tale from the Buddha’s 550 jatakas, by Danai Chanchaochai, Bangkok Post, 8 October 2004

I’m sure this is an apt quote for today. The day we’ve waited for. The first anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signing, where the State Counselor and the Commander-in-Chief attend, each giving us a piece of what they think of the current peace process.

Here are the excerpts taken mainly from the Global New Light of Myanmar, and what they mean to “friends of Burma” that I know.

State Counselor

• I would like to appreciate and honor the previous government led by President U Thein Sein for its contribution to the

  

  signing of the NCA.

• Should we want peace and ceasefire, it is very important to cease the fire inside ourselves which are anger and animosity.
• We may achieve genuine peace only after anger and animosity within our hearts and soul are extinguished.
• We ought not to compete in firepower. On the contrary, we need to vie with one another in our fire-extinguishing power
• It is sorrowful to learn that there are still some organizations who haven’t signed the NCA yet.
• I request you not to look back at the past, but to draw lessons from it.

Arguments arise among her listeners who she was directing her speech to, long after it was over. Some say it’s for the military. Others say it’s for the non-signatory EAOs. Yet there are others who argue that she must be targeting both the military and non-signatories.

Then comes the long anticipated and prepared address by the CinC Min Aung Hlaing:

• Any regions and states in the Union are home to all ethnics, not for a single ethnic specifically.For example, more than 1.6 million of population are living in Kachin State, with 29.2% of Bamar

23.6% of Shan

18.97% of Jingphaw

7 % of Lisu

5.5% of Rawang

3.33% of Lawwaw

2.89% of Lachik

1.57% of Zaikwa, and

8% of other ethnics in population ratios in line with the census enumerated in 2014. (He follows this by citing population               ratios in Kayah/Karenni and Shan states)

• Peace process will be stable and secure only when it is implemented systematically step by step. Politics is the Art of Possible, not about wishes. (Original quote by Otto von Bismarck: “Politics is the art of the possible, attainable — the art of the next best.”)
• The six-point peace policy of Tatmadaw and the NCA pave the way to peace from armed path and from peace to a genuine democratic Union based on the federal system as well.

  

• Signing the NCA will bring many benefits, already proven by such things as clashes have ended and peace has prevailed in the regions of signatories and local people can earn their livelihood safely while trust has grown between the forces of two sides. Therefore, I would like to urge the non-signatories to follow the good example.
• If it takes a long time for implementing the peace process, people will face loss of life and property as well as the State will be lagged behind development. As such, it needs to complete the Peace Conference through signing the NCA as quickly as possible.
• One should not try for heading toward the national level (political dialogues) by bypassing the issues included in the NCA without signing.

Before we return to the Commander in Chief’s speech, a few salient points from Gen Saw Mutu Saypoe, who represents the signatory EAOs, may be worth a look-over:

• The NCA and the peace process also serve as an important pillar for international support and the lifting of sanctions we are now enjoying.
• It is necessary to stop the ongoing armed conflicts in northern Myanmar. Although incidents are understandable, intentional attacks are not acceptable.
• It should also be remembered that there are still weaknesses in implementing the NCA. There are weaknesses to create dialogue spaces for region and state levels. Therefore it is necessary to move from what appears as elite peace process to inclusive peace process.

It should be reminded here that one of the decisions reached at the 10 October meeting was to hold an NCA implementation review meeting on 26-27 October.

(At the time of this writing, the meeting has been postponed to a later, yet to be specified date, after negotiations with the non-signatories reportedly took 3 instead of 2 originally planned days)

A long time Burma watcher with sources of information of his own gives this comment a few hours later:

• A day earlier, the state counselor and the Commander in chief held a special security meeting. One report says the Lady had blamed the previous government for being “so accommodating” with the EAOs. “Now I’m at the end of my tether,” she was reported as saying. (Others say she could not put the blame solely on Thein Sein, as she herself had set up the 21^st century Panglong Conference Preparatory Committee, a structure outside the NCA, in order to get the non-signatories on board)
• It means the government, hand in hand with the military, is running out of patience. That together they are going to play hard ball with the EAOs, especially the non-signatories. The international community then will be obliged to go along with her decision.
• If one listened carefully to the CinC’s speech, one wouldn’t miss what he was implying: that the Jingphaw (which he meant Kachin) are a minority in their own state, with a smaller constituency than most of the other ethnics.
• The friend’s suggestion therefore is that the non-signatories, especially the KIO/KIA call the government’s bluff by signing the NCA. The government would then have no excuse to continue with its offensive and if it does, the blame will be on it.

The problem is that the EAOs are facing with a hard choice:

• Signing the NCA first, ceasefire second, or
• Ceasefire first, and signing the NCA second

She herself had informed them on 17 July that it would be a ‘calculated risk,’ but one worth taking.

I’m back in Rangoon by 22:30 after a 5-hour ride in a friend’s minibus. This time a room has been reserved for me, as well as others, at another hotel, Parami, in Mayangon.