It was Lincoln who once said, “If a man ceases to attack me, I never remember the past against him.”
The implication is crystal clear. If that man returns to his bad ways again, all his past misdeeds will be remembered. Not only what he did, but all those what his friends, and his outfit has done, past and present. Worse, all the good deeds that his group has done may be forgotten.
The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), though signed by 8 of the 15 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) recognized by the government on 15 October, was approved by the Union Legislature on 8 December, thanks to the efforts of government leaders like U Aung Min and U Thein Zaw.
To add to the credit of the government, and especially the military, negotiations that followed the NCA signing —military Code of Conduct (COC) and terms of reference (TOR) for the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM), Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) and Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) that will oversee the political negotiations — went smooth, mostly because military representatives graciously conceded that all the demands by the signatory EAOs were in line with the NCA.
The understanding showed by the military was such there were even unfounded but understandable accusations from some quarters that the signatories were working hand in glove against the non-signatories. That was until the 77th day after the NCA signing.
On New Year’s eve came the unexpected blow: A patrol of the Restoration Council of Shan State/Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA), better known as SSA South, was attacked by a column of the seemingly friendly Infantry Battalion (IB) 278 in Mongpu, Mong Piang township eastern Shan State. The SSA reportedly lost one fighter.
But the loss was more than one precious life. Both the SSA and the local people appeared to have lost confidence in the Burmese military as an institute of honor. Hardliners in the EAOs, both signatories and non-signatories, moreover have been “proven” by that unfortunate oversight that they have been right all along.
The only things that can save the day appear to be the speedy establishment of JMCs at state and local levels, and the holding of the political dialogues in faith by both sides, especially by the government side.
If not, not only can we not expect the non-signatories to come on board, even the signatories will be leaving it, deciding that War War, if we are permitted to counter-paraphrase Churchill, may be bloodier but less dishonest than Jaw Jaw.
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