Making it hard what’s easy

That’s the way of the world

This passage from acclaimed songwriter Sai Kham Lake’s Thake Chit Ya De Nwe Tin (Most beloved Nwe Tin) is a favorite with U Aung Min, President Thein Sein’s front man in the negotiations with the non- Burman ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).

Following the completion of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) draft on 31 March, he said he hope it would be signed soon by the EAOs, because despite its imperfections, it has made 4 solemn pledges namely:

• Political dialogue will closely follow the NCA signing
• The signatory-EAOs and their members will be exempted from the notorious Unlawful Associations Act, popularly known as Section 17/1
• Federalism, as the country’s future, will be the main dialogue topic
• The EAOs need not surrender their arms throughout the peace process

However, more than 3 months after its conclusion, the NCA draft is still yet to be signed although last month’s EAO summit meeting at Law Khee Lar, on the Thai-Burmese border, had adopted it with 9 proposed amendments.

According to sources from both sides, the Senior Delegation (SD) appointed by Law Khee Lar, has a 5 point proposition:

• Changing the wordings in the NCA draft
• Inclusiveness, meaning all EAOs must sign the NCA
• The President and the Commander-in-Chief must be among the signatories
• To include more countries as witness signatories
• No military pressure on EAOs that may be unable to take part in the signing together with others

On the government’s side, polishing of the language in the NCA and inclusiveness are already accepted in principle, but the rest needs to be negotiated in one more formal meeting. The tentative date for which is 20 July.

According to government sources, the NCA signing, drafting and ratification of the Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) and the first launching of the Political Dialogue (PD) should be done before the end of August, as the whole country’s focus will be shifting to the election campaigns in September and October. Among those campaigners would be several Union Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC) members, including U Aung Min and the military’s representatives who are expected to retire and register themselves as civilian candidates.

The period for registration is 20 July-8 August. “If they retire before the registration, they will no longer be eligible as UPWC members,” one Myanmar Peace Center (MPC) official explained. “But if the NCA negotiations don’t conclude during the period, then they will no longer be able apply as candidates.”

Another problem, according to the MPC, is that the military has been upgrading its security levels in the run-up to the elections. “Now it’s level 3, and the army has placed more restrictions along the border areas,” said one. “It is expected to be elevated to level 4, where Section 17/1 will be reactivated, in the coming months.”

Last but not least, is the unity of the UPWC which is made up of 3 components: government, parliament, and the military. “The NCA draft was successfully drawn while these 3 were still united,” said a member if the government “Now, with the elections coming, each has gone its own way. So trying to deal with the UPWC today will not be as easy as it was three months ago.”

Yet, despite the delay and the resultant concern, both sides appear to have built up sufficient mutual trust during their informal meeting in Chiangmai on 3-4 July.

One reason, according to Hkun Okker, one of the SD members, is that the new EAO negotiation team has adopted a 4 point strategy:

• The main aim is to conclude the NCA negotiations
• There must be flexibility in order to achieve the main aim
• The time frame for achieving the main aim is during the incumbent government’s tenure
• The SD will allow nothing to be the way of achieving the main aim

As a French philosopher had said: Nothing’s certain except uncertainty, it won’t be a bad idea to let’s hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

Updated: 15 July 2015