Thein Sein can’t relax as the whole military clique is in panic, that losing another chunk of power would start a domino leading to avalanche collapse of its complete control of decision-making power.

The second-last resort to such angst could be the emergency rule by decree, as is allowed by the military-drafted constitution. The last resort is of course the military coup.

The military had created such a situation in central Shan State by launching offensives on SSPP/SSA without reason. Only it had not officially used the emergency decree, but nevertheless had declared non-voting areas to the chagrin of the SNLD for they were its political stronghold and consequently, lost sizeable seats in the election. This and irregularties in Tatmadaw influenced militia areas have given the USDP the most seats in Shan State and not out of popularity and love from the people it has suppressed for decades.

This time, it is pitting nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) signer, the RCSS/SSA and non-signatory TNLA against each other, intentionally or unintentionally, could create an atmosphere ripe for emergency decree rule.

This could become an opportunity or handy reason in time to invite the Tatmadaw to act, postponing even the setting up of an elected NLD government.

While no one could be sure that this will happen, there is a potential that a panic-ridden military clique could do anything, which it thinks will save its skin.