There is no argument that the conflict situation in Myanmar has polarized almost to the point of irreconciliation between the two adversary parties of National League for Democracy (NLD)-led Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hlattaw/National Unity Government (CRPH/NUG) and the coup-maker military junta now known as State Administration Council (SAC).
In the conflict process, the CRPH has now diversified into NUG which seems to capture the sentiment of the general public mood, originated and spearheaded first by the Generation Z, to uproot the military dictatorship, abolish military-drafted constitution, establish federal democratic union and release of all political prisoners. The strategy has been based on three pillars of general strikes, led by the General Strike Committee (GSC) and General Strike Committee of Nationalities (GSCN), the civil disobedience movement (CDM) to deny administrative power to the junta, and the CRPH to represent the people domestically and internationally.
The CRPH further branched out to announce the formation of people’s defense force (PDF), with the aim to become part of the federal union army (FUA) together with the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) in the foreseeable future.
But the NUG formation is still not being officially accepted by the majority of the EAOs and also ethnic political parties (EPPs) although it claimed to include some ethnic individuals in its parallel administration. One EAO member included in NUG is from Chin National Front (CNF) who occupies the federal affairs ministry and a Kachin individual as vice-president, including a Karen who is NLD member as prime minister. Besides, some individuals from civil society organizations (CSOs) are also given portfolios within the NUG. In short NLD occupies all key positions and more than half of the cabinet posts.
Among the EAOs only the CNF and Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA) Brigade 5 openly endorsed the NUG. The rest of the EAOs mostly supported the people’s uprising now popularly dubbed as “Spring Revolution”, including the CDM, although they have made no official endorsement of the NUG for whatever reason they might have in store.
Recent Development
The civilian resistance in form of local defense groups have been growing even before the parallel government’s PDF formation. The junta has labeled the CRPH/NUG and its affiliation and subordinate groups as terrorist organizations, as if to counter the terrorist tag given to it by the CRPH after its random killings of the demonstrators and other crimes against humanity following the military coup. The junta also accused that the NUG incited CDM to commit violence, bombings, arson and even man slaughter.
In a clear message that the NUG isn’t keen for dialogue with the junta, Vice President Duwa Lashi La said recently said: “The path for negotiations agreed at the ASEAN summit is not what the people of Myanmar want,” in its address to the people on May 8.
He explicitly said NUG won’t negotiate with the junta without the people’s consent, which at the moment is understandably non-existence given the brutality and killings of the people who were against the junta’s rule.
The public mood is strictly to uproot the military dictatorship as can be seen by the formation of numerous armed resistance groups popping up like mushrooms even before the announcement of the NUG formation of the PDF countrywide. But a lot of local groups under the banner of PDF still need to build up coordination, cooperation and chain of command structure. For the time being, the local resistance groups may be seen as partisan-like movement rather than a structured regular army that it is aiming for.
And since the announcement of PDF formation dozens of local resistance groups sprang up and they are multiplying in numbers with each passing day. The open firefight resistance by the people were reported mostly in Sagaing Region and Chin State, followed less intensively by Mandalay and Magwe regions. Bomb explosions were becoming common in big cities like Mandalay, Yangon, Bago and many other towns. In short, civil war has now come to Burmese heartland which was not the case before, as most were waged in ethnic states with the Tatmadaw or Burma Army occupation troops oppressing the ethnic populations for decades, who were fighting to regain back their rights of self-determination.
NCA-S-EAOs’ Proposal
On May 11, the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement-Signatory-EAOs (NCA-S-EAOs) sent out letters to NCA Witnesses and Observers proposing them to play the role of mediator.
“We, the ethnic armed organization (EAO) Signatories of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, believe that, the NCA can be evoked to resolve the crisis with the legitimate participation of NCA Witnesses and Observers. Therefore, we would like explore ways for NCA Witnesses to mediate,” writes the letter.
The importance of ASEAN involvement mediation, which was endorsed by the US and China, is also outlined as: “We welcome the ASEAN Five Point Consensus on Myanmar on 24 April 2021, that called for an immediate end to the violence; a constructive dialogue between all stakeholders; humanitarian assistance; and ASEAN mediation to find a peaceful solution in the interest of the people. However, ASEAN alone will not be able to mediate the current political crisis. That said, we would like to see the Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair included in this process that we are proposing.”
“The NCA is an official agreement ratified by the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw. Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing himself also signed the NCA. The principles of the NCA peace process include resolving political issues through political means instead of the use of force, and providing humanitarian assistance. The current political crisis needs to be resolved in this way,” writes the letter outlining the importance of the NCA, which is now largely criticized by the junta’s opposition camps as no more relevant as the junta has breached it by staging military coup and usurped political decision-making power.
Concerning the need to widen stakeholders involvement it writes: “Stakeholders in the original NCA peace process include the Tatmadaw, the Government, EAOs, political parties and civil society. The peace process was not just for the ethnic people. It was for the country as a whole. Therefore, the proposed dialogue between stakeholders must include the Tatmadaw, the competing authorities, EAOs, political parties, the various Strike Committees and civil society. Who will be represented at the talks and how they will be represented need to be negotiated amongst stakeholders. This needs to be mediated by NCA Witnesses – China, European Union, India, Japan, Thailand and the UN (plus the ASEAN Special Envoy), and observed by NCA observer countries – Norway, UK, and the USA.”
In the mean time, the initiative proposal has been sent out to the non-NCA-Signatory EAOs and NUG for consideration and possible endorsement. The proposal details may be made public in a press conference scheduled to be held on either May 27 or 28, according to the reliable insider source.
The Plan
The plan introduction mentioned the NCA norms based on five national causes, which are
- Non-disintegration of the Union;
- Non-disintegration of national unity;
- Maintaining national sovereignty;
- Establishing a federal union; and
- Building a democratic nation.
(Based on NCA Principles 1.a and 21st Century Panglong).
Regarding the basic principles the following are outlined.
- Resolution of political crises through political dialogue instead of armed force (NCA Principles 1.b).
- Political dialogue must involve all stakeholders (Preamble to the NCA).
- Political dialogue must be based on dignity and justice (Preamble to the NCA).
- The Myanmar Government, Tatmadaw and ethnic armed organizations must protect civilians (NCA Chapter 3.9).
The eleven-point plan are listed as the following.
1. All Burma Student’s Democratic Front (ABSDF), Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), Chin National Front (CNF), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA), Karen National Union (KNU), Karen Peace Council (KPC), Lahu Democratic Union (LDU), New Mon State Party (NMSP), Pa-O National Liberation Organization (PNLO) , Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), agree to invite NCA Witnesses (& ASEAN Special Envoy) to mediate.
Arakan Army (AA), Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), United Wa State Army (UWSA), are invited to endorse mediation plan.
2. China, European Union, India, Japan, Thailand and the United Nations (& ASEAN Special Envoy) are invited to oversee the proposed Political Dialogue process.
3. Signatories of EAO Letter to Witnesses have joint preliminary meeting with China, European Union, India, Japan, Thailand and the United Nations (& ASEAN Special Envoy).
Note: To build confidence and trust – representatives of the Tatmadaw, CRPH, GSC, GSC-N, etc. and the Observer nations1 may also be invited to the joint preliminary meeting.
4. China, European Union, India, Japan, Thailand and the United Nations (& ASEAN Special Envoy) agree amongst themselves on role of individual nations (organizations) and meeting venues.
5. Process of identifying representatives of various stakeholders by the stakeholders themselves.
Note: There is usually confusion in Myanmar over representation at the national level and at the sub-national level, i.e. ethnic States and Regions.
6. Mediating Nations convene joint preliminary meeting with Myanmar stakeholders after representatives of various stakeholders have been clearly identified and accepted by the majority of participants.
Note: No one participant should be given veto power. If veto power is used, the proposed political dialogue will not yield required results, i.e. stability and the return to a democratic transition.
7. Process of identifying members of National Mediation Team by national stakeholders themselves in consultation with the Mediating Nations.
8. Joint appointment of members of the National Mediation Team by national stakeholders and the Mediating Nations.
9. Mediating Nations convene informal workshop of National Mediation Team and national stakeholders to negotiate a Time Table, Agenda and Road Map for the Political Dialogue.
10. Mediating Nations convene conference of stakeholders to discuss the Time Table, Agenda and Road Map for the Political Dialogue and negotiate a final version.
11. Mediating Nations convene conference of stakeholders to begin negotiations as per the agreed Time Table, Agenda and Road Map for the Political Dialogue.
Perspectives
Given the hard facts and development on the ground, the proposal of the signatory EAOs for the NCA witnesses and NCA observers mediation may be viewed as an attempt to expand the ASEAN initiative, which was rejected as half-hearted and unserious by the junta’s opposition camp, although it is a bit too early to give opinion on the latest attempt if it will make a difference. According to the initiators this may well be the last attempt to resolve the conflict in a peaceful manner, as failing to do so may lead to an all-out war of total destruction.
First, as the proposal of the signatories lean heavily on NCA norms the question arise if it should continue to be treated as legally binding.
From the legal point of view the major three stakeholders, the government, military and EAOs were to work out peaceful political settlement. But with the February military coup the NCA is no more valid or in existence as it violated the contractual obligation, which is forcefully removing a dialogue partner and usurp political decision-making power of a government.
While the initiators were not really implying that they wanted to breath life back into the NCA process, it clearly wanted to evoke the spirit of NCA, if not the agreement itself.
Secondly, from the moral and ethical point of view the military junta with its gross human rights violations and continued commitment of crimes against humanity, it is not acceptable to be a political stakeholder or partner in the democratization process.
The junta has to date killed some 800 protesters who were against its regime and detained more than 4000 which are still in progress.
Thirdly, the people’s perception has changed from anti-coup to uprooting of the military dictatorship once and for all because of the junta’s tyrannical rule behavior showed clearly in just
three short months on how brutal and inhumane it could act against the people.
Thus, even the good will intention of the NCA-S-EAOs to bring in NCA Witnesses and Observers as mediators will not be an easy task, given the distrustful atmosphere and perception that each warring party believes to be having advantage than the other, each in its own way.
From the point of opposition camp which reflects the mood of the people, the junta and its institution have to be abolished or sent back to the barracks, as the military having a say in political arena is unthinkable and no more acceptable. This means the opposition, especially the CRPH/NUG, may be only ready to talk to the junta for its exit from politics but not as a negotiating stakeholder.
In the same vein, the junta which still has influence over the military may not give up easily without a fight and has been doing just that from the outset after the coup, in the hope that it will be able to intimidate and cow the population into submission just like in the past.
Thus, the two likely scenarios we have at the moment may either be a long drawn out resistance war of the people, with some of the EAOs, such as KIO and KNU, involvement against the junta or a reluctant agreement of warring parties to negotiate as initiated by the NCA-signatories to avoid becoming a civil war infested country without end.
The National Mediation Team to be made up with several countries will no doubt have to face an uphill struggle, first to create a conducive atmosphere and then to resolve the seven-decade-old political and ethnic conflict. But it may still be better than plunging deeper into the bottomless pit of failed state without any question.
