Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Questions for peacemakers

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Thanks to you on both sides of the fence, the final Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) draft is now agreed by all on 7 August. The only question remains is whether there’ll be a signing of it.


The Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) plan is as follows, according to insider sources:

  • Each EAO will hold meetings to consider the question
  • They will then hold another summit to jointly reconsider it
  • The top leaders of what are known collectively as the Big Five (Kachin Independence Organization, Karen National Union , Karenni National Progressive Party, New Mon State Party and Shan State Progress Party) are expected to meet the President and the Commander-in-Chief afterward

What will happen after the Big Seven meeting is of course still open to further questions— and arguments.

Some of which are:


·       Signing before the end of August (C-in-C will be traveling abroad, Election campaigns begin in September)
·       Signing before elections
·       Three of the EAOs, (Arakan National Council, Wa National Organization, Lahu Democratic Union) haven’t exchanged fire with the Burma Army. No fire, so no ceasefire necessary

·       As for the other 3 (Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta-ang National Liberation Army): AA is part of KIO, MNDAA guilty of “violation of sovereignty”, and TNLA needs to sign bilateral ceasefire first


·       We need time to hold a summit; it is not easy to organize one

·       Signing during the current government’s tenure.

·       They are our people

·       If the 3 are left behind the NCA will be meaningless. Government needs to show more magnanimity

Then there are questions and arguments from the government’s side too.


·       President Thein Sein doesn’t deserve credit for the peace process

·       We don’t trust C-in-C Min Aung Hlaing

·       (Wa, Mong La) we don’t need to sign the NCA. We will only join the peace process after the NCA is signed.

·       We want to hold another summit before sending the Big Five to Naypyitaw

·       The Big Five want to meet the President and C-in-C


Who else is?

Who then do you trust?

·       If you don’t, others will also use it as an excuse to skip the NCA

·       Since each EAO will have already met and decided whether to sign or not by that time, is another summit necessary?

·       Is there going to be the signing of NCA afterward?

Of course, there are more questions. But these should be enough for the present.

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