From 4-8 May 2016,  I was back in Burma, the land I have called Hopeland, though nobody else have. Perhaps few cherish little or no hope for the country. Or maybe they’ve already decided peace and democracy is a foregone conclusion.

This time the main reason was to attend a seminar, titled Peace Architecture: Comparative Approaches and Options for Myanmar.

As usual, my intention was to try to make the most of the opportunity by meeting as many friends I can so I could pick up their brains to share with readers, for whom the welfare of this battered land is in their interest.

Day One. Wednesday, 4 May 2016

Those who realize that

One day, we all must die settle their quarrels.

The Dhammapada, Verse-6

My initial plan is to meet long-time-no see friends to talk about old, as well as present, days, after checking in at Inya Lake, where the seminar is to take place tomorrow.

But while waiting to board the plane, I receive a call from Sao Yawd Serk, Chairman of the Restoration Council of Shan State/ Shan State Army (RCSS/SSA) asking me whether I could attend a meeting between the signatory EAOs and Dr Tin Myo Win, who’s being tipped as deputy for the peace mission to be formed by the newly appointed State Counselor (SC). I could, I reply.

The long and short of it is I’m at the Green Hill Hotel, where he is due to arrive, just before 14:00, one and a half hours after the plane from Chiangmai landed at Mingladon.

Dr Tin Myo Win is with us for an hour, and the meeting goes something like this:

TMW   I’m afraid I don’t carry any mandate. And I know only half of what’s happening. (Someone tells me later that it is his standard opening statement.)

Padoh Kwe Htoo Win: That’s all right as long as you’re ready to share what you think will be appropriate for us.

A letter has been prepared for the SC to be taken to her by Dr Tin Myo Win. Dr Lian Hmung Sakhong explains to him the contents, some of the important points of which are:

• According to Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) Article 21, supreme authority has been vested in the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM). The Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) and the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) were formed by it. We would therefore propose that the first meeting should be that of the JICM.
• The 21^st century Panglong Conference, as stated by the SC (on 27 April), to our understanding, is the continuation of the Union Peace Conference (UPC), the first of which was held in January
• It is necessary to honor not only the NCA (which is multi-lateral) but bilateral agreements that were signed earlier
• We implore the SC to publicly encourage the signatory EAOs and the non-signatory EAOs to work together for a common purpose with her government

Hkun Okker     Just in case you are concerned about the Unlawful Associations Act (which prohibits association with unlawful organizations), I recall your predecessor U Aung Min carrying a Presidential order authorizing him to meet everyone he wanted. The same thing can be done under the new government.

N.B.     Most of the non-signatories were delisted during the 1989-2009 period: UWSA, NDAA MNDAA, SSPP/SSA, KIO/KIA, MNSP and KNPP. There has been no official announcement whether or not they have been re-listed as unlawful organizations.

Dr TMW          According to Buddhist belief, everyone who is endowed with 4 Adhipatidhammas, is bound to win in every task he/she undertakes. I plan to follow the teaching.

N.B      The 4 are Chanda: will power, Citta: mind, Viriya: effort, and Vimangsa: wisdom, according to Patthana Dhamma.

Yebaw Myo Win          We would also like to know more about the planned meeting for 10 May. Agenda, status (formal, or informal) and who’s going to be invited.

TMW   This, I haven’t learned the details yet, which is being worked out by the SC office. I will meet her tomorrow evening to inform her about this.

The envelope containing the letter is handed over to him by Padoh Kwe Htoo Win.

My next meeting is with friends, who, for their sake, will not be identified here.

They tell me they are worried about growing tensions between U Shwe Mann and the military, which has the potential to push the peace process into an insignificant corner.

“U Shwe Mann’s Facebook article last week praising the NLD while playing down the achievements of the previous governments evoked angry responses from the military,” says one, showing me an unofficial translation of Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing’s speech on Monday, 2 May.

He reads out the following paragraph:

Take a look at the world political stages. Some political parties and their government can assume 2-3 and 4 consecutive terms, white some others have to step down before their first term comes to an end.

 “This appears to be very ominous to me,” he comments. “Sounds rather like a warning, doesn’t it?”

I have no answer for this. But I do remember what one of the foreign academics said a few days earlier:

“The circumstances have changed since the Cold War ended. Then the Burmese military was fighting against Communists backed by China. So there was little or no condemnation. Today, things are different.”

 I also remember what U Ye Htut, the ex-information minister, said at the Economist Myanmar Summit, 15 May 2015:

The constitution is designed to create a political space where political parties, ethnic forces and the military can work together and build trust among them. A mechanism was also devised there to prevent chaos. The military also wants to remain part of the solution.

 Or words to that effect.

 At the end of the day, I must admit I don’t have an answer for their question: Is there going to be a coup or not?