The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) has authorized the Joint Implementation Coordination Meeting (JICM) to oversee its execution by two bodies: one, the Joint Ceasefire Monitoring Committee (JMC) that essentially deals with military matters, and the other, the Union Peace Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) that deals with the political ones.

The latter’s job, more specifically, is:

• To draft the framework for political dialogue (FPD) within 60 days after the NCA signing (i.e. December 14, 2015)
• To launch the political dialogue (PD) within 90 days after the signing (i.e. January 13, 2016)

They are to be followed, one after another, by:

• Union Peace Conference (UPC)
• Union Accord
• Ratification of the Union Accord by the Union Legislature
• Implementation of the Union Accord (which includes amendment of the constitution)

In practice, the gathering at Naypyidaw, from January 12-16, has put the political dialogue (PD) and the Union Peace Conference (UPC) together. This is expected to be followed by state level political dialogues in the coming months, before the second UPC is called, under the leadership of the new government.

The dialogue topics, according to the approved FPD, include:

• Political

1. Constitutional principles based on democratic and federal principles
2. Collective rights of the ethnic peoples
3. Check and balance among the country’s three sovereign powers (i.e. executive, legislative, and judiciary)
4. General administrative reform
5. Matters pertaining to elections
6. Matters pertaining to rule of law

• Social

1. Matters pertaining to the ethnic peoples, such as history, literature, language, traditions, education and health
2. Faith and religious matters
3. Resettlement, reconstruction and social development
4. Human rights, gender equality and humanitarian matters
5. Narcotic drugs: prevention and education

• Economics

1. National economic policies
2. Foreign investment
3. Taxation and revenue sharing
4. Local development
5. Finance and fiscal policies

• Security

1. National defense
2. Security Sector Reintegration

• Land and Natural resources

1. Management and distribution
2. Protection against natural disasters

• General

The FPD has not named any specific sub-headings, but other drafts have mentioned matters such as labor, non-discrimination, tourism, media and participation of NGOs and civil society organizations. More are expected to be added during the course of the political dialogue.

I hope this answers one pertinent question: Whether the ongoing UPC in Naypyidaw is going to be the first and last of its kind. No, it will not, at least not until all the issues stated above are answered to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.

Another is that the present FPD drawn and approved by the UPDJC and further endorsed by the JICM is NOT carved in stone. The drafters are well aware that more ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) need to come on board, and more inputs are needed from the upcoming government, legislature and the people.

The FPD states the fact quite clearly: Article 17: The FPD can be amended by the UPDJC without prejudicing the terms of the NCA.

And how are decisions made? According to the UPDJC Terms of Reference (TOR) Article 5, each decision is passed by support from more than 50 percent of each bloc (government, EAOs and political parties) as well as support from two-thirds of all the UPDJC members attending the meeting.

By SAI KHUENSAI / Director of Pyidaungsu Institute and Founder of Shan Herald Agency for News (S.H.A.N)

All views expressed are the author’s own.