As the dust settled and the elections’ end result made known, the government in waiting and the people at large are again burdened with the worries of a pending transfer of power that should take place in three months time, according to the constitution.
Given such a lengthy period of waiting and zero experience in the regime transfer undertaking, Aung San Suu Kyi. shortly after the National League for Democracy (NLD) landslide win of the elections became irreversible, has officially written three separate letters of request for a speedy meeting to the President Thein Sein, Commander in Chief Min Aung Hlaing and House speaker Thura Shwe Mann, in order to map out a smooth governmental transition.
Thura Shwe Mann complied to her request almost immediately, but the President and the Commander-in-Chief have delayed the meeting, stating that the union election commission (UEC) still need to wrap up the electoral process officially, until both recently said that they would meet her on the 2nd of December.
In relation to this pressing and crucial transitional issue, two separate interviews of the country’s major stakeholders, Aung San Suu Kyi and Min Aung Hlaing, a courtesy home call on Aung San Suu Kyi by the former strongman Senior-General Than Shwe’s grandson, and a visit of the 8 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that have signed the government initiated nationwide ceasefire agreement (NCA) to the NLD office need to be evaluated, in order to determine the country’s political climate and which way the political wind is blowing.
Crucial and undeniably linked to the issues of political transition and national reconciliation is the controversial armed ethnic conflict in Shan and Kachin States. Especially the ongoing military offensives of the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) in central Shan State, which is seen as a deliberate attempt to create a two-tiered society – a relatively free and democratic one in heartland Burma and the other a military occupied ethnic homelands under the totalitarian rule.
Aung San Suu Kyi interview with RFA
On 26 November, in a fortnightly RFA program “Democracy rough journey and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi”, she spelled out a general NLD guideline on how her future administration would likely be formed.
She said her government would be a national reconciliation one manned not only by the NLD members, but also with ethnic leaders and able non-NLD personnel, apart from stressing the importance of achieving peace and ending the war in ethnic states; adhering to the spirit of Panglong, which according to her should be the cornerstone of any government in Burma; instilling the rule of law, coupled with moral and ethical awareness to uphold it; and that she and the NLD could not do this tremendous task alone, but needs help from all quarters.
She also complained that governmental change of three months is a long transitional period, but the people are patiently enduring and waiting for the long aspired moment to come.
In the said RFA interview Suu Kyi touched on who would be involved, how the elected NLD representatives should posture and national reconciliation would be moulded.
She said: “In the to be formed government, non-NLD ethnic nationalities will be included. Hopefully, others that could benefit the country will also participate.”
On defining the role of the MPs, she stressed: “(They) should think, (it is) not to lead but to serve the people. Don’t go and tell the representatives that they are leaders, (I) absolutely don’t want to encourage such ideas.”
Regarding her stance on national reconciliation, “(We) won’t take it all because (we’ve) won. But (will work) with the spirit of sharing and cooperation with all together. Of course the NLD will lead, the people has clearly given us the mandate as we have asked for.”
In an answer on how she thought about the ongoing war in Shan and Kachin States, she said: “This is not good. How can the civil war be good for the country? The election have just been finished, but it looks like that peace is still far away. The main point is that civil war terribly troubled the people. Have you seen the photos from Shan State? You media people know how the people have to endure.”
She elaborated that first peace has to returned to the ethnic states, followed by development, which has a wide range covering healthcare, education, social sectors and culture. But the most important thing is the union spirit, which should be spread far and wide to become deeply rooted in the society.
Touching on the NCA and Myanmar Peace Center’s (MPC) deliberation on the process, she said: “To continue the work of ceasefire with the political framework, negotiation should start now. Because we want to carry on with some good things that the MPC has done and change those that need to be changed. That’s why meeting soon with the people that ought to be met (to discuss) the issues surrounding the country is a good thing, not for the sake of power transfer, but to smooth them out step-by-step quickly, so that when the time comes for transfer of power according to the law and all issues that need to be tackle could be immediately done, including the peace process.”
EAOs meet NLD
Following the repeated request of the 8 EAOs, headed by Kwe Htoo Win of Karen National Union (KNU), met the NLD on 26 November.
The five EAOs involved were the KNU, the Chin National Front, the Pa-Oh National Liberation Organisation, the All Burma Students’ Democratic Front and the Arakan Liberation Party. They were among eight groups that had signed the NCA with the current USDP-Military regime on October 15, which Aung San Suu Kyi had refused to sign as a witness, stating that it was not all-inclusive.
The NLD was represented by senior officials U Win Htein, U Han Thar Myint and U Myo Yan Naung Thein. NLD leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did not attend the talks.
U Win Htein said the NLD officials told the ethnic groups not to worry and that the party would continue to support the peace process after taking office next March.
“We explained to them that since the foundation of the NLD in 1988, national reconciliation has been the most important objective for the party,” he added.
But stressed that the NLD cannot accept the political representation of the non-elected parties in the representative body of 16 members, which is now the case.
U Win Htein said numerous small parties are either the creation or under the sway of the regime to spread the vote in the elections and all were not even elected.
The Union Political Dialogue Joint Committee (UPDJC) has 16 members each from the EAOs, the government and the political parties, making it a total of 48 members in all.
War in Shan State
Two days before the elections, on 6 October 2015, a large scale offensive by the Burma Army (Tatmadaw) comprising of some 20 battalions launched an offensive in central Shan State. The intention was to seize the territories of Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army (SSPP/SSA) in Kehsi, Mong Nawng, Mong Hsu and Tangyan townships, using heavy artillery, jet fighters and helicopter gunship air support. Besides targeting the SSA positions, also indiscriminate shelling and bombing were directed at inhabited civilian areas, displacing thousands of Shan, Palaung, Lisu and Lahu people causing a new humanitarian crisis. For the time being, the refugees now numbering some 10,000 still could not return, due to the prevailing military tension between the two warring parties.
The SSPP/SSA signed a bilateral ceasefire agreement with the government in February 2012. But in the years that follows, there have been hundreds of minor skirmishes between the SSA and the Tatmadaw, failing to secure a durable truce.
On 23 November, Union Peace-making Working Committee (UPWC) and SSPP/SSA discussed 8 negotiation points, which included the latter withdrawal from its positions from the southern side of Mong Nwang – Mong Hsu stretch of motor way to the southern part, among others.
Latest news coming out from Shan sources said the SSPP/SSA agreed in principle on the negotiation points, but have asked to work out the details on demarcation lines on the map together. The Tatmadaw is also said to be eager to comply with the detailed implementation.
Shan civilian-based organizations have issued a press release on 26 November on the the plight of the Shan people, due to the Tatmadaw’s military offensive in central Shan State. Part of the release writes:
- During its latest large-scale offensive to seize Shan ceasefire territories, Naypyitaw troops have been launching repeated air and ground missile attacks on densely populated civilian areas. From November 9 to 12, fighter aircraft and artillery rained bombs on 6,000 civilians in the town of Mong Nawng, as well as on Wan Saw village in Mong Hsu, where over 1,500 displaced villagers were sheltering.
- These attacks, and abuses including shooting and rape of villagers, have displaced over 10,000 people from Ke See, Mong Hsu and Mong Nawng townships. Most are sheltering in makeshift camps, relying on donations from local communities. There has been little sign of aid from international agencies in Yangon.
- The offensive, which began on October 6, was taking place while election monitors and journalists from across the globe were in Burma to observe the recent polls. Yet most news reports have only praised the “peaceful” nature of the elections, and no foreign governments have publicly raised concerns about the attacks and war crimes being committed by Burmese government troops.
Min Aung Hlaing sending mixed signal
The interview conducted by Lally Weymouth a senior associate editor for The Washington Post a mixed signals from the commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing could be detected regarding the general attitude of the Tatmadaw, including the political transitional issue.
Min Aung Hlaing has just iterated his usual position and not much of a difference from his previous interviews.
He said that he is ready to answer all of Aung San Suu Kyi’s questions, when they meet in December. To sum up, he confirmed that he support President Thein Sein’s position that the regime would help to smoothly conduct the governmental transfer of power. But regarding the constitutional amendments of Section 436, including a clause 59(f) that would enable Aung San Suu Kyi to become President, he indicated that nothing could be done.
In connection with this, he stressed: “We – the armed forces – favour national politics, not partisan politics. We are not rigid on the constitution . . . . We have already signed a nationwide cease-fire agreement. But we need a mature and stable political situation in our country. We need to gradually change. Right now we are not ready.”
In answering the question of what would he need to make him feel comfortable to turn more power over to the civilians, he replied: “It would depend on the stability of our country and people understanding the practice of democracy. Some countries have faced problems as they become democracies.”
Thus, it is clear that the election result will be honoured and power transfer will take place, albeit the military won’t be supportive where constitutional amendment is concerned.
Than Shwe’s grandson visit Aung San Suu Kyi
Aung San Suu Kyi recent meeting with Pho La Pyae, also known as Nay Shwe Thway Aung, who is the still influential, former dictator Senior-General Than Shwe’s grandson have invoked curiosity for Burma watchers and stakeholders alike.
As a result, speculation is rife that the military as a whole might be willing to compromise for a smooth transition.
General Than Shwe is the former chairman of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), who has kept a low profile since retiring from the political scene following Burma’s general election in 2010. Senior government officials – former military men – see him as a father figure and have spoken with reverence of the former junta head but maintain he is no longer involved in politics.
On 26 November, Suu Kyi confirmed the meeting but declined to say anything more. But Nay Shwe Thway Aung which he already posted in his Facebook earlier stating “Tonight will be a historic one,” has gone viral, speculating that General Than Shwe might have met the Lady.
He later posted on the Facebook on November 26: “I don’t want to make everyone puzzled any more. I am glad that she was warm to me when we met. I will do what I can for the benefit of the country. I hope people will be glad about the news.”
The meeting has been seen in a positive light of smooth political transition, both by the Rangoon-based political commentator Yan Myo Thein and an NLD central committee member U Win Htein.
Analysis
Aung San Suu Kyi’s interview with RFA could be seen as the NLD spelling out its commitment and with whom the national reconciliation government is to be formed, while Commander-in-Chief’s interview with the Washington Post confirmed that political power transfer will happen, although to back the constitutional reform is not in the military’s agenda.
It could be said that the two interviews have given us a clearer picture on where the two rival parties stand, which should be welcomed.
As for the 8 EAOs, the meeting with the NLD is to secure their bargaining position when Aung San Suu Kyi government come into being in March 2016. They are afraid that the structure and committees formed by them will be altered. Most important is to assuage the fact that Suu Kyi sees them as toeing the appeasement line for not adhering to all-inclusiveness like the United Nationalities federal Council (UNFC) members, who are non-signatories of the government initiated partial-ceasefire agreement, dubbed NCA, on 15 October 2015. It looks like, the 8 EAOs have miscalculated for they thought the USDP would at least would win enough vote, be able to form a coalition government with the help of the appointed military faction and continue the peace process. It is now very likely that the game plan will be altered and players will be replaced by the new incoming regime.
Than Shwe’s grandson visit of Suu Kyi could also be viewed in a positive light, as they old General is the unofficial head of the military, even though no body openly talks about it. As such, it could be viewed as a good-will approach from the part of the military to cooperate for the benefit of the country, although it could also be seen as an insurance security approach for General’s immediate family members and the military class as a whole, if it is not only a tactical move to confused the enemy.
The war in Shan State is a deliberate attempt to create an atmosphere of war, so that emergency rule could be invoked, like in Arakan State and Kokang Self Administrative Zone. The Tatmadaw could expand the move the whole country over in all ethnic states, if it decides to do so for any reason, creating two parallel societies – a relatively free democratic society in Burmese heartland and oppressed ethnic homelands rules by a totalitarian military personnel.
Of course, whether the military will pull through such a stunt in a big way to show that it is calling the shots and disrupt the NLD regime’s to rule; or employ emergency rule in small pockets, where there are resistance movements, is an open question that it has to decide.
But the near future political power transfer will definitely happen for a variety of reasons. They are: the Union Solidarity and Development Party-Military (USDP-Military) clique is not ready to forsake the international community, risks another various sanctions from the West and pulls the country down like during the aftermath of 1990 elections; afraid that the uncontrollable social unrest would occur if it goes against the overwhelming public endorsement of the NLD, besides not being sure of the military’s full support; and not willing to go back into the ambit of China by nullifying the election result; apart from wanting to honour its given promises to uphold the outcome of the elections and conduct a smooth transition of power.
Whatever the case, the commitment that this crucial task of transferring political power would be fulfilled by both the President and the Commander-in-Chief is a blessing, for the first step to real democratization and reconciliation is now within reach and everyone should welcome this noble development.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU)-Editor
