Thein Sein’s government has tried two times within a time span of a little more than one month to deliver a diplomatic coup, but has not been successful to the extent that it has anticipated or hope for.
The first one was on the Independence Day, 4 January, where the ceremony attending Ethnic Armed Organizations’ (EAOs) members were given a few minutes of audience each, which was a far cry from equal diplomatic relation or a sort of protocol wished by the EAOs. And the other, the recent Union Day celebration, on the 12th of February, where only four of the 13 attending EAOs signed the so-called interim agreement titled, “Deed of Commitment for Peace and National Reconciliation”.
The government is, at long last, employing its much talked about “open book” signatory approach, where the EAOs could sign according to their wishes, whenever they like. It now seems it has given up the hope of getting all the EAOs to sign the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) together.
The five points interim solution agreement includes, the building of a federal union, according to the result from Political Dialogue (PD) and Panglong spirit; to conclude NCA; to solve the conflict through all-inclusive PD; to draft Framework for Political Dialogue (FPD) before 2015 election; and to prevent armed clashes and confrontations between various armed groups.
According to DVB report of 12 February, the President, 2 Vice-Presidents, Union Election Commission Chairman, 15 Government Ministers, 3 Parliamentary Representatives, 3 Military Representative Generals, 55 Political Parties out of 61 Parties, 29 Ethnic Affairs Ministers, and 4 EAOs from 13 EAOs, signed the statement.
The four EAOs that signed it were Karen National Union (KNU), Restoration Council of Shan State (RCSS), Democratic Karen Benevolent Army (DKBA) and Karen Peace Council (KPC).
The interim agreement proposal of United Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC) for the Union Day to be signed was “building a federal union based on national states, with equality, rights of self-determination and democracy”, which the government have already rejected, saying only noncommittally that “building a federal union from the discussion outcome of PD”, which is to be held after the signing of NCA.
If one looks at it generally, it seems like as if there is not much difference and would be generally taken by the public that an agreement to establish a federal union have already been reached. A closer look at it will reveal that USPD-Military clique is not prepared to go along with the UNFC’s national states-based federal union, but might be only ready to devolve some central powers, with the USPD-Military dominated, presidential unitary system fully intact.
The question why the government side is so reluctant and so careful not to commit itself politically for a genuine federal union set up, could be only explained that it is not ready to abandon or loosen its political monopoly that it has enjoyed since the military coup in 1962 and its economic edge and privilege that comes with it. In short, USPD-Military clique is trying to maintain its “group survival” mode for as long as it can through political power monopoly and might only want to fade out gradually, without having to meet the faith of violent political purge and able to make a quite exit, whenever it chooses, with all their ill-gotten economic gains intact.
The tactics of Burman racial supremacy ideology, now seems to be not working like it used to be among the Burman majority, due to the partial liberalization of political atmosphere since Thein Sein comes to power in 2011, have pave the way for more political awareness, particularly where the understanding of federalism is concerned. And as a result, the mass call for the structural change from unitary presidential to federal form of government has become louder with every passing day.
The 88 generation and as well, the Nationalities League for Democracy (NLD) have issued statements on the occasion of Union Day that the ethnic conflict could be only solved through equitable power-sharing, based on the system of genuine federalism, and according to the aspiration and promises of Panglong Agreement, signed in 1947 between the then Ministerial Burma and the non-Burman ethnic states.
The situation is that the USDP-Military regime would like to perhaps fade away gradually at its own pace, without endangering its hold on power base to ensure its safety exit, while the ethnic and democratic opposition want to accelerate the process of democratization and federalism to end the tyrannical rule and military domination of the polity to resolve ethnic conflict, as soon as possible.
Nai Hong Sar, in his interview with Mizzima, on 2 February, makes it quite clear, in response to the question, what the Tatmadaw (military) would gain in being an obstacle to peace process in Burma, when he said. “ The benefits for the Tatmadaw of being an obstacle to the peace process is that they will be able to maintain their power and their own business opportunities. It is protecting their interests. This is why the Tatmadaw opposes changes to the constitution. As long as the constitution prevails, it is protecting the interests of the Tatmadaw.”
Equally convincing, but still need to go the extra mile, to endorse it without second thought, is what Thein Sein has said in his message to mark the Union Day message. He said:” The government has been relentless in its efforts to sign a nationwide ceasefire agreement and has been holding all-inclusive political dialogue with all national political forces with the aim of developing a union based on a federal system and a genuine peace that puts an end to the armed conflicts that have raged for over six decades, ever since independence was regained.”
The extra mile, in this sense, is none other than the commitment of building a federal union anchored in “equality, rights of self-determination and democracy”, rather than just a non-committal phrase or slippery wordings like forming federal system of union “according to the outcome from political dialogue”.
At this moment, no one knows if Thein Sein’s and his henchmen tactics of “open book” strategy will snowball in no time and overwhelm the UNFC and Nationwide Ceasefire Coordinating Team (NCCT) or would just fade away with the time.
According to The Irrawaddy report of 12 February, longtime Burma expert Bertil Lintner described the commitment as merely a “face-saving gesture” designed to please the international community.
“The so-called ‘peace process’ has failed,” he said. “Just look at the north of the country. As this agreement was signed there’s heavy fighting in Kokang, northern Shan State, and in parts of Kachin State.”
Face-saving gesture or not, if Thein Sein really wants to turn his failure or defeat back into a success story, he will need to go the extra mile, whether he likes it or not.
The contributor is ex-General Secretary of the dormant Shan Democratic Union (SDU) — Editor
